7月美国非农就业数据点评：就业走弱，降息只快不慢

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 104,000, with the previous month's value revised down to 14,000[6] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations, while the labor participation rate fell for the third consecutive month to 62.2%[6][9] - The average hourly wage in the private sector increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, indicating rising core service inflation pressures[9][10] Economic Outlook - The softening job market provides ample justification for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September from 37.7% to 78.7%[9][30] - The recent acceleration in U.S. trade negotiations and the reduction of tariff uncertainties contribute to a clearer inflation outlook, suggesting that if inflation does not exceed expectations, a rate cut in September is highly likely[9][10] Risks - There is a potential risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to implement rate cuts, especially with upcoming tariff adjustments that may impact prices[7][33]