HAILIANG(SZ:002203) Soochow Securities·2025-08-02 09:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the impact of the U.S. tariffs on copper products, leading to a profit growth that may exceed expectations [1][3] - The demand for copper pipes in the U.S. is projected to grow, with a significant recovery in profitability anticipated for 2025 [3][10] - The tariff policy has resulted in a redistribution of profits, providing the company with a competitive advantage in negotiations due to its status as a local copper processing enterprise in the U.S. [3][10] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to reach RMB 75.749 billion in 2023, growing to RMB 137.957 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.49% [1][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to RMB 703.30 million in 2024 but rebound to RMB 3.938 billion by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [1][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.35 in 2024 to RMB 1.97 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [1][11] Tariff Impact and Market Dynamics - The U.S. tariffs on copper products are expected to enhance the company's profit margins, with an estimated profit of RMB 14,000 per ton after tax deductions [3][10] - The company's U.S. factory is anticipated to expand its production capacity significantly, with projections of reaching 90,000 tons by the second half of 2025 [10][11] - The anticipated increase in production and sales volume is expected to improve the company's capacity utilization and overall profitability [3][10]