反转策略：红利滞涨下的超额选择

Group 1 - The report suggests that a reversal strategy may be a new choice in the current market environment, where overall profit growth is slowing and high-growth industries are contracting. The decline in dividend asset returns indicates that reversal strategies could present excess opportunities during periods of dividend stagnation [3][10]. - The reversal strategy is based on a model that tracks changes in industry profit expectations. A reversal signal is triggered when the profit expectation rises significantly from its low point, specifically by 25% or 70% [25][23]. - Historical data shows that when industry profit expectations rise by 25%, there is a 72% success rate over four months, with an average outperformance of 5% against the All A index. When the rise is 70%, the success rate increases to 80%, with an average outperformance of 7.8% over the same period [25][24]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the overall profit growth for the All A index has been declining from 2021 to 2024, with high-growth industries shrinking. However, there is an expectation that profit growth may reverse in 2025-2026 [6][10]. - The report identifies key industries such as non-bank financials, construction materials, electronics, steel, and telecommunications that have shown significant profit expectation increases since the beginning of the year [3][6]. - The analysis indicates that during periods of dividend stagnation, reversal strategies tend to outperform, particularly in weak economic conditions where high dividend assets are underperforming [15][16].