债市止跌信用跟随利率下行，二永利差普遍压缩2-4BP

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has stopped falling, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. Short - duration and low - grade varieties have shown strong performance. Credit spreads have mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads have generally remained stable, with differentiation among different regions [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads have slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have also decreased [2][17]. - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have all declined, and the spreads have generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds [2][24]. - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds have generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds [2][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Stabilization and Credit Spread Changes - Interest - rate bond yields first rose and then fell, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds declining by 3BP, 4BP, 3BP, 3BP, and 5BP respectively. Credit bond yields generally followed the decline in interest rates but underperformed interest - rate bonds. The yield changes of 7Y varieties with a small previous adjustment were limited [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining. Rating spreads and term spreads showed significant differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - Overall, urban investment bond spreads remained stable, with differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA and AA platforms remained flat, while those of AA + platforms increased by 1BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and county - level platforms generally remained flat [16]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds also decreased. The spreads of central and local state - owned enterprise real estate bonds remained flat, those of mixed - ownership real estate bonds declined by 4BP, and those of private - enterprise real estate bonds increased by 8BP [2][17]. - The spreads of coal bonds of each grade declined by 1BP; the spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated steel bonds declined by 3BP; the spreads of AAA - rated chemical bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated chemical bonds declined by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds all declined, and the spreads generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds, with high - grade varieties performing slightly better [2][24]. 3.5 Perpetual Bond Excess Spreads - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds. The excess spreads of 3Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds increased by 3.34BP to 7.16BP, and those of 5Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds remained flat at 7.65BP [2][27]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [31]. - The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [31].