Minsheng Securities·2025-08-02 11:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas, and New Natural Gas [5]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and economic concerns are driving significant fluctuations in oil prices, with recent U.S. sanctions on Iran and potential tariffs on countries trading with Russia impacting market sentiment [1][9]. - The report highlights that Russia's oil exports are projected to exceed 4 million barrels per day, with U.S. sanctions potentially disrupting global oil supply [2][10]. - The report notes an increase in the U.S. dollar index and rising oil prices, with Brent crude futures settling at $69.67 per barrel, reflecting a 1.80% increase week-on-week [3][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong risk resilience and resource advantages, such as China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, which are expected to benefit from stable oil prices and high dividend yields [14]. Oil Price Performance - As of August 1, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $69.67 per barrel, up 1.80% from the previous week, while WTI futures settled at $67.33 per barrel, up 3.33% [38][39]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.31 million barrels per day, while refinery throughput decreased to 16.91 million barrels per day, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [11][12]. - The report indicates that U.S. crude oil inventories rose, with strategic reserves at 402.74 million barrels, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 240,000 barrels [13]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with China National Petroleum Corporation expected to have an EPS of 0.90 yuan in 2024, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 yuan [5].