Minsheng Securities·2025-08-02 11:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua, and Zhongmei Energy [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the price of thermal coal will rebound to the "8" range due to dual support from supply and demand, with a price center expected to maintain around 700 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity demand, with total power generation growth reaching 8.57% year-on-year, and thermal power growth at 5.48% [2][7]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to production checks and adverse weather conditions, leading to a structural shortage of coal [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are on an upward trend, driven by supply constraints and increased electricity demand [2][7]. - It mentions that the daily coal consumption of power plants has risen to over 6 million tons, with further upward potential [2][7]. 2. Market Performance - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 4.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [12][14]. - The report details the performance of various coal companies, with Jin Control Coal Industry experiencing the largest decline of 11.94% [17][20]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the tightening supply in the coal market, with significant drops in railway shipments and port inventories [2][9]. - It highlights the expected recovery in production capacity in mid-August, which may influence price dynamics [2][7]. 4. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market elasticity, stable performance, and growth potential, such as Lu'an Huanneng, Jin Control Coal Industry, and others [3][11].