流动性跟踪：隔夜利率重回1.3%

Liquidity Overview - The overnight interest rate has returned to 1.3% as of August 2, 2025, with a stable liquidity environment across the month-end period from July 28 to August 1[1] - The central bank's net short-term reverse repos amounted to 1.32 trillion yuan during the month-end, supporting liquidity needs[1] - The 7-day funding rate decreased to 1.40% in early August, indicating a loosening of liquidity conditions[2] Monetary Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized maintaining ample liquidity, with the central bank reaffirming a moderately loose monetary policy in its August 1 meeting[2] - The market is not expected to face similar tightening of funding rates as seen in January to March 2025[2] Market Trends - The bill market saw a significant drop in rates, with the 1-month bill rate falling to 0.20%, down 82 basis points from the previous week, indicating weak credit demand[4] - Major banks recorded a net purchase of 592.8 billion yuan in bills for July 2025, a historical monthly high compared to 124.1 billion yuan in July 2024[4] Government Debt Activity - Government debt net payments increased to 339 billion yuan from 287.6 billion yuan the previous week, driven by a substantial rise in national bond payments[5] - The planned issuance of government bonds for August 4-8 is set at 578.5 billion yuan, with national bonds accounting for 413 billion yuan[5] Interbank Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The weighted issuance rate for CDs was 1.63%, up 2 basis points week-on-week, but showed a decline to 1.69% post-month-end[6] - The upcoming week (August 4-8) will see 583.8 billion yuan in CDs maturing, indicating increased maturity pressure compared to the previous week[6] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in liquidity and adjustments in monetary policy due to economic data exceeding expectations or shifts in overseas monetary policies[7]