白糖周报：进口供应增加，郑糖减仓下跌-20250802

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the second half of the year, the price difference between imported sugar processing and Guangxi sugar has narrowed, and the import supply is gradually increasing. The spot import profit outside the quota has remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a relatively high valuation. Coupled with the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next crushing season, assuming that the external market price does not rebound significantly, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline in the future is relatively high [9] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Market Review: This week, the raw sugar price fluctuated weakly. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was reported at 16.20 cents per pound, down 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week, a decrease of 0.49%. In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil increased by 15.07% year - on - year to 3.406 million tons, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.33 million tons. The estimated net sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3.9 million tons to 30 million tons, slightly lower than the market expectation of 31 - 34 million tons. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports is 79, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded is 3.5531 million tons. It is estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season will be 40.16 million tons, a slight decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous season [9] - Domestic Market Review: This week, the Zhengzhou sugar price decreased with a reduction in positions. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar September contract was reported at 5,733 yuan per ton, down 143 yuan per ton from the previous week, an increase of 2.43%. As of June, the newly added sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Industry Group was 320,000 mu, with a total planting area of 2.15 million mu [9] - Fundamental Assessment: On August 1, 2025, the basis was 257 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread was 113 yuan per ton, the production - sales area spread was - 110 yuan per ton, the raw - refined sugar spread was 107 US dollars per ton, the sugar - alcohol spread was 2.67 cents per pound, the in - quota cost of the October contract was 4,526 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,647 yuan per ton. The overall valuation of the market is relatively high [10] - Trading Strategy Recommendation: No trading strategy was recommended [11] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis: The report presents the price trend of first - grade white granulated sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, and the basis between the Nanning spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [17][18] - Spot - to - Spot Spreads: It shows the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spreads, Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spreads, and Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spreads [20][21][24] - Domestic - Foreign Spreads: It includes the out - of - quota spot import profit, out - of - quota futures import profit, raw sugar 10 - 3 spreads, and raw sugar 3 - 5 spreads [25][26][28] - London White Sugar Monthly Spreads: It shows the London white sugar 8 - 10 spreads and 10 - 3 spreads [29][30] - Raw - Refined Sugar Spreads: It presents the 10 - 10 and 3 - 3 raw - refined sugar spreads [31][32] - Raw Sugar Spot Premiums and Discounts: It shows the Brazilian and Thai raw sugar premiums and discounts [33][34] - Sugar - Alcohol Ratio Fluctuations: It shows the production advantage of raw sugar over Brazilian hydrous ethanol and the Brazilian oil - alcohol ratio [36][37] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - National Production: It presents the national monthly and cumulative sugar production [41][42] - Sugar Imports: It shows the national monthly and cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and cumulative imports of syrups and premixes [44][45][47] - National Sales: It presents the national monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress [49][50] - National Industrial Inventory: It shows the national monthly industrial inventory and Guangxi's three - party warehouse inventory [52][53] 3.4 International Market Situation - CFTC Positions: It shows the CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [57][58] - Production in Central - Southern Brazil: It presents the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil [60][61][64] - India's Production: It shows India's bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production [65][66] - Thailand's Production: It shows Thailand's bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production [68][69] - Brazil's Shipment Volume: It shows the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports [71][72]