Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with a significant increase in FMG shipments driving up Australia's overall shipments, while Brazil's shipments declined slightly, and non - mainstream countries' shipments dropped to a relatively low level for the year. Daily hot metal production decreased slightly due to production issues at some steel mills. Port inventories decreased, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased slightly. - From a fundamental perspective, the steel mill profitability rate remains at a high level, and there is no obvious downward pressure on hot metal production, so demand support still exists. The overall growth on the supply side is limited, and iron ore port inventories are trending downward. - Iron ore prices are affected by domestic commodity policy expectations, downstream profits, and commodity sentiment. After the important meeting in July, the released content was basically in line with expectations, and some aspects were slightly below expectations. In the short term, the overall commodities may be adjusted, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate with downstream prices, mainly in a volatile state. Market divergence still exists, and risk control should be noted. [11][13][14] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Global iron ore shipments totaled 32.009 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 918,000 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.039 million tons. Australia's shipments were 18.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.302 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 15.504 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.068 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.964 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 262,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 23.197 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.921 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 142.2201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7367 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.142 million tons. [11][13][14] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Spreads: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder spread was 102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder spread was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 11.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 1.5 yuan/ton. - Input Ratios and Scrap Steel: The pellet input ratio was 15.22%, unchanged from the previous period. The lump ore input ratio was 12.25%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The sinter input ratio was 72.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. - Profits: The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 1.69 yuan/wet ton. [16][19][22] 3. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.579 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3248 million tons. The pellet inventory was 380,140 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,150 tons. - The port inventory of iron concentrate powder was 1.06708 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,420 tons. The port inventory of lump ore was 1.71706 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,560 tons. - The port inventory of Australian ore was 59.9685 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.964 million tons. The port inventory of Brazilian ore was 48.4307 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 644,700 tons. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2687 million tons. [32][35][38][41][46] 4. Supply Side - 19 - Port Data: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 14.894 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.04 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 235,000 tons. - Major Miners: Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 4.898 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 327,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.963 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 363,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 6.388 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 468,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.639 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 849,000 tons. - Arrival and Import Data: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. - Domestic Mines: The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 59.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 463,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 173,000 tons. [48][51][54][57][60][66] 5. Demand Side - Hot Metal Production and Blast Furnace Utilization: Domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,000 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points. - Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.0271 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.244 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9946 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 164,000 tons. [68][71][74] 6. Basis As of August 1, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 50.41 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.05%. [76][79]
铁矿石周报：宏观兑现，短期震荡-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-02 13:53