蛋白粕周报：巴西报价上涨，豆粕锚定成本-20250802

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - External soybean market: The valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal is at a low level. The Brazilian soybean quote is supported by Chinese vessel purchases and Sino - US trade relations. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation with support and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - amplitude upward oscillation due to a single supply source [9]. - Domestic double - meal market: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures this week. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided some support, but previous soybean meal vessel purchases and the information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs promoting the reduction of soybean meal consumption may continue to suppress the valuation. The domestic market had good transactions this week, and the提货 was at a relatively high level. The soybean inventory in China may decline around the end of September, and the domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and oscillate before that. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: US soybeans were weakly declining this week due to good weather bringing harvest pressure and the lack of positive impact on US soybean exports from Sino - US negotiations. The USDA August monthly report may maintain the July report's inventory - to - sales ratio of 7.06% for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and 29.65% for global soybeans in the 25/26 season [9]. - Domestic Double - Meal: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided support, but previous vessel purchases and the promotion of reduced soybean meal consumption may suppress the valuation. As of the end of last week, the inventory days of feed enterprises slightly decreased to 8.05 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The vessel purchase schedule indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September [9]. - Strategies: In the soybean meal market, try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for Sino - US tariff progress and new supply - side drivers. For arbitrage, widen the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Prices: There are charts showing the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18]. - Basis of Main Contracts: There are charts showing the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract [20][21]. - Spreads: There are charts showing spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc. [23][24]. - Fund Positions: There are charts showing the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: There are charts showing the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate [32][33]. - Weather Conditions: There are charts showing the weighted precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and there is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January [35][38]. - US Soybean Export Progress: There are charts showing the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate, etc. [52][53]. - China's Oilseed Imports: There are charts showing China's monthly soybean and rapeseed imports and forecasts [55][56]. - China's Oil Mill Crushing: There are charts showing the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills [57][58]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: There are charts showing the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills [61][62]. - Protein Meal Inventory: There are charts showing the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills [64][65]. - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: There are charts showing the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed along the coast [66][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - Soybean Meal Demand: There are charts showing the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [68][69]. - Breeding Profit: There are charts showing the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [71][72].