鸡蛋周报：反弹抛空，留意持仓风险-20250802

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Newly opened production has increased while the culling of old chickens has been sluggish, leading to a larger supply. As a result, the spot price of eggs in the peak season has fallen short of expectations. Near - month short - sellers should continue to squeeze out the premium, and the reverse spread logic prevails in the futures market. However, as the market still anticipates a peak - season rebound in August and September, with the intensification of differences on the futures market after the increase in positions, it is easy to cause reverse fluctuations when the spot price rises. Considering the high inventory throughout the peak season and the fact that subsequent futures contracts cannot reflect the spot price peak, short - sellers should wait for a rebound to sell, and in the short - term, they can appropriately reduce short positions at low prices to avoid position risks [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, egg prices unexpectedly declined. After continuous previous increases, downstream demand was insufficient, and there was resistance to high prices. Coupled with an abundant supply, egg prices were under pressure during the week. However, as it is still the peak season, downstream buyers made purchases after the price drop, slowing down the decline. This week, the price of culled chickens remained high, and the average age of chickens slightly increased. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan per catty, in Guantao by 0.18 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, in Huilongguan (a sales area) by 0.18 yuan to 3.21 yuan per catty, and in Dongguan by 0.25 yuan to 2.98 yuan per catty. With the continuous increase in newly opened production, limited culling of old chickens, and a large laying - hen inventory, but the high temperature affecting the egg - laying rate, high - quality large - sized eggs were in short supply. As the egg price dropped to a relatively low level, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased. It is expected that egg prices will stabilize first and then rise next week, but the increase may be limited due to the inventory [11]. - Chick Rearing and Culling: Since the second half of last year, the number of chicks reared has been continuously high due to low costs. However, with the intensification of breeding losses and seasonal factors, the number of chicks reared has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of chicks reared was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped by 30 days to around 500 days. However, since July, the market's bullish sentiment has gradually increased, the culling volume has stagnated, the price difference between old chickens and white chickens has remained high, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 507 days [11]. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.356 billion, higher than previously expected, an increase of 0.16 billion compared to June and a 6.2% increase compared to 1.277 billion in the same period last year. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase in the future, with a peak expected in October this year at 1.367 billion, a 0.08% increase compared to the current level. Although it will decline thereafter, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [11]. - Demand: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. Subsequently, with the pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the shadow of the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking ends, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [11]. - Trading Strategy: For the unilateral strategy, short - sell on rebounds for contracts 09, 10, and 11, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended period of 1 - 2 months, and the core driving logic including inventory, spot price, cost, demand, and culling, with a two - star recommendation level and first proposed on July 16. No arbitrage strategy is recommended for now [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price Movement: Last week, egg prices unexpectedly declined. After continuous previous increases, downstream demand was insufficient, and there was resistance to high prices. Coupled with an abundant supply, egg prices were under pressure during the week. However, as it is still the peak season, downstream buyers made purchases after the price drop, slowing down the decline. This week, the price of culled chickens remained high, and the average age of chickens slightly increased. It is expected that egg prices will stabilize first and then rise next week, but the increase may be limited due to the inventory [20]. - Basis and Spread: After the spot price strengthened, it lacked momentum. The current basis is still low, the near - month contracts are under great pressure, and the spread between months tends to be in a reverse spread [23]. - Culled Chicken Price: Previously, the culling of old chickens increased, and there was over - culling in some areas, resulting in a significant decline in the price difference between white chickens and culled chickens. However, recently, due to the expectation of price increases in the peak season, the culling of chickens has stagnated [26]. 3.3. Supply Side - Egg - Laying Hen Rearing: Since the second half of last year, the number of chicks reared has been continuously high due to low costs. However, with the intensification of breeding losses and seasonal factors, the number of chicks reared has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of chicks reared was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [33]. - Culled Chicken Culling: In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped by 30 days to around 500 days. However, since July, the market's bullish sentiment has gradually increased, the culling volume has stagnated, the price difference between old chickens and white chickens has remained high, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 507 days [36]. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.356 billion, higher than previously expected, an increase of 0.16 billion compared to June and a 6.2% increase compared to 1.277 billion in the same period last year. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase in the future, with a peak expected in October this year at 1.367 billion, a 0.08% increase compared to the current level. Although it will decline thereafter, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [38][41] 3.4. Demand Side - After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. Subsequently, with the pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the shadow of the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking ends, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [46] 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost has slightly increased but is still low compared to the same period last year. In terms of profitability, it is at a seasonally low level [51] 3.6. Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and there is a seasonal downward trend. However, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year [56]