铝周报：国内“反内卷”情绪降温-20250802

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The US counter - tariff has been implemented, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations are not beyond expectations, and the domestic "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down. Black - series commodities have fluctuated and declined, with a slightly weak sentiment. Domestically, the relatively low inventory of aluminum ingots supports aluminum prices. However, given the off - season for downstream demand and pressure on export demand, the upside for aluminum prices is limited. In the short term, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is expected to be between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and for LME 3M aluminum, it is between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - Inventory & Spot: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 340,000 tons week - on - week to 544,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 2.6 US dollars/ton [13]. - Imports and Exports: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the domestic spot import loss of aluminum has shrunk [13]. - Demand: The weekly aluminum product operating rate continued to decline. The operating rates of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, profiles, and alloys all decreased, while the operating rate of aluminum rods increased slightly. The downstream is currently in the off - season, and the spot trading of aluminum remains weak. According to the production scheduling reports of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule for household air conditioners is 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared to the actual production volume of the same period last year; for refrigerators, it is 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; and for washing machines, it is 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum fell 1.2% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME aluminum closed down 2.26% to 2,571 US dollars/ton [22]. - Term Spread: The month - on - month spread rebounded slightly [27]. - Spot Basis: The basis of aluminum ingots in major domestic regions fluctuated and stabilized [30]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: The East China spot was weak, while the Central China spot was strong [35]. - LME Premium and Discount: LME aluminum Cash/3M was slightly at a discount [40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The aluminum smelting profit declined to 3,367 yuan/ton [45]. - Inventory: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 544,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 147,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The LME inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons due to LME warehousing [48][51][54]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: There is no specific description of price changes in the report. - Alumina Price: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [63]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price declined, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [68]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6%. Production increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient [73]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity will remain high, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - Aluminum Water Ratio: The aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated and rebounded. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points. It is estimated that the aluminum water ratio will rebound in August [79]. 3.6 Demand Side - Aluminum Product Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound: The aluminum ingot outbound volume remained basically flat (as of the week ending July 28) [84]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In June, the operating rates of aluminum rods, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods all declined, while the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but was recently weak [85][89][93][96]. - Terminal Demand: The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak. The current real - estate data is also weak, automobile production and sales are acceptable, and photovoltaic installations have decreased significantly, and related demand is also under pressure [99]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Aluminum Ingot Imports: In June 2025, China imported 192,000 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots has narrowed [102]. - Aluminum Product Exports: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [13][108]. - Recycled Aluminum Imports: In June 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative import volume in the first six months was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative import volume of bauxite from January to June was 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina export volume from January to June was 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].