油脂周报：高频数据一般，低库存支撑-20250802

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the draft of the US biodiesel policy exceeded expectations, the palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia was insufficient, the vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas were low, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy supported the central level of oils and fats. Regarding palm oil, if demand - side countries maintained normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remained at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in producing areas might remain stable, supporting the producer prices to fluctuate strongly. There might be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation was relatively high, and the upward space was restricted by factors such as the annual - level oil and fat production increase expectation, relatively high near - term palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro factors, and demand adjustments by major importing countries. Therefore, it should be viewed as fluctuating [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Market Overview - Palm oil maintained a volatile trend this week. The net long positions of foreign capital, which accounted for the main positions of the three major oils and fats, reached a record high. Palm oil reduced long positions this week, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil slightly increased long positions. The estimated export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 31st decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% month - on - month. The SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 25th, 2025, increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected export of Malaysian palm oil implied a recovery in Indonesia's production or weak demand in consumer areas. The narrative of palm oil production increase and weak demand still suppressed the market. Although there were medium - term positive factors such as the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the short - term data deviation also brought correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - market rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level. China and Australia were in contact regarding rapeseed purchases, which suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil widened, mainly because some domestic soybean oil was exported, alleviating the domestic supply pressure of soybean oil [11]. - In the international oils and fats market, the USDA July monthly report estimated that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US would increase by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, which would be supplemented by a decrease in soybean oil exports and an increase in crushing output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil only increased by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipping volume of Canadian rapeseed farmers decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export volume remained relatively high. The commercial inventory was recently stable at a neutral - to - high level in previous years. In addition, the contact between China and Australia regarding rapeseed trade depressed the rapeseed price, and the price of foreign - market rapeseed fluctuated weakly this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large - scale export data, but the new - crop rapeseed faced a production reduction situation, which supported the rapeseed price. India might have started a replenishment process, which would support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic oils and fats market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The spot basis was at a relatively low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats was about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory was 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory was about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory was the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume would increase with the arrival of soybeans. After the increase in palm oil production, the willingness to export would also increase. Rapeseed oil would maintain a slow de - stocking trend, but the high price difference and weak consumption of rapeseed oil led to a slow de - stocking process. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats would temporarily remain at a relatively high level [11]. - Trading Strategy Suggestion - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to view the market as fluctuating. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above [13]. - No specific content was provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - futures, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts. These charts help to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23]. 3.3 Supply Side - Production and Export of Palm Oil - The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil from 2021 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the supply situation of palm oil in these two major producing areas [28][29]. - It also presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, which are helpful for understanding the supply situation of raw materials for soybean oil and rapeseed oil production [30][31]. - Weather in Palm - Producing Areas - The report includes charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which can be used to analyze the potential impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Inventory of Domestic Oils and Fats - The report shows the total inventory chart of domestic three major oils and fats and the inventory chart of Indian imported vegetable oils, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in the domestic and Indian markets [41]. - Profit and Inventory of Different Oils - For palm oil, it presents the near - month import profit chart and the commercial inventory chart [44]. - For soybean oil, it shows the spot crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory chart of major soybean oil mills [46]. - For rapeseed oil, it shows the average spot crushing profit chart of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory chart of rapeseed oil in East China [47]. - Inventory of Palm Oil in Producing Areas - The report shows the inventory charts of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in palm - oil - producing areas [49]. 3.5 Cost Side - Cost of Palm Oil - The report shows the reference price chart of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price chart of Malaysian palm oil, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of palm oil [51][53]. - Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed - It presents the CNF import price chart of rapeseed oil (nearest - month shipping date) and the import cost price chart of Chinese imported rapeseed, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - Oils and Fats Trading Volume - The report shows the cumulative trading volume charts of palm oil and soybean oil in different crop years, which can be used to analyze the trading volume situation of these two oils and fats [58]. - Profit of Biodiesel - It presents the POGO spread chart (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread chart (soybean oil - heating oil), which can be used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel production using palm oil and soybean oil [60].