热卷周报：情绪降温，基本面表现中性-20250802

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has significantly cooled, with the prices of finished steel products slightly adjusting downwards. The market sentiment has clearly cooled, and the fundamentals of steel are weak. The futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the current static fundamental contradictions are not prominent, the Politburo meeting did not provide new positive signals for the real estate market, and the policy is expected to continue the previous tone of "strictly controlling increments." Attention should be paid to the repair rhythm of terminal actual demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished steel products [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost Side: The hot - rolled coil's on - paper profit is 195 yuan/ton, and the spot price is about 99 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a significant decline in valuation [7] - Supply Side: This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.6% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,200 tons, and the pig iron output remained at a relatively high level [7] - Demand Side: This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.4% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. The demand increased slightly, and the demand level remained neutral [8] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.4516 million tons, with a slight accumulation [9] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [12] 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - The document provides various charts related to the spot price of hot - rolled Q235B 4.75mm, regional price differences, basis of different contracts, futures contract price differences, and price differences between hot - rolled coils and other products, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [18][22][24] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of blast furnace and electric furnace for rebar [61][63] - Inventory: Charts present the total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates [65][69][70] 3.4 Cost Side - Charts display the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, the price of scrap steel, daily average pig iron output, iron - making cost, and the price of billets [82][84][87] 3.5 Supply Side - Hot - Rolled Coils: Charts show the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of 37 sample enterprises, as well as the output in different regions [96][98][99] - Cold - Rolled Coils: Charts present the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of 29 sample enterprises, as well as the output in different regions [105][108][109] - Coated Plates: Charts show the weekly output and capacity utilization rate of color - coated and galvanized plates [110][111] 3.6 Demand Side - Hot - Rolled Coils: This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.4% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. Charts also show the apparent consumption and its cumulative year - on - year change [8][114][115] - Related Industries: Charts display the production and sales data of industries such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers, which are related to the demand for steel products [117][123][124]