国债周报：债市短期修复-20250802

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year's H1 economic data remained resilient despite tariff disruptions. July's PMI data was below expectations, with both supply and demand sides declining. New export orders and high - frequency port data indicated a potential weakening of the front - loading export effect, and future exports may face pressure. - In terms of funds, the increase in government bond issuance and maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit, as well as fluctuations in the stock and commodity markets, had an impact on capital flow. However, the central bank's supportive attitude towards funds is expected to maintain overall liquidity in the future. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to trend downward in the long - term. However, the recent positive sentiment in the stock market has suppressed the bond market, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy: H1 economic data was resilient under tariff influence. July's PMI was below expectations. Overseas, the FOMC meeting showed a marginally hawkish stance from the Fed, the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a US rate cut in September increased. There were also important domestic and international policy events such as the Politburo meeting, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the announcement of the national childcare subsidy system [10][11]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 1633.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1656.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [13]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10Y Treasury yield was 1.71%, down 3.17BP week - on - week; the 30Y Treasury yield was 1.95%, down 3.70BP week - on - week. The latest 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [13]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit conditions [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [19][22][25]. 3. Main Economic Data - Domestic Economy: - GDP: In Q2 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. - PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. - Price Index: In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. - Export: In June, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In June, industrial added value increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. - Investment and Real Estate Data: In June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and real estate - related data showed continued adjustment [43][49][52]. - Foreign Economy: - US: Q1 GDP had a real year - on - year growth rate of 2.05% and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 0.3%. In June, CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000. - EU: Q1 GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. - Eurozone: In July, the preliminary CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 [70][73][79]. 4. Liquidity - In June, M1 growth was 4.6%, M2 growth was 8.3%, and the social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan. The increase in social financing mainly came from government bonds. - In July, the MLF balance was 535 billion yuan, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection through reverse repurchases was 6.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [84][90]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: The latest 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury yields were 1.42%, 1.57%, 1.71%, and 1.95% respectively, with corresponding week - on - week changes of - 1.29BP, - 5.66BP, - 3.17BP, and - 3.70BP. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [93]. - Exchange Rates: No specific analysis of exchange rate trends was provided, only relevant data charts were presented [101].