聚酯周报：原料端估值压缩，下游利润有所缓解-20250802

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of PX, PTA, and MEG all declined. PX load remained high, PTA short - term maintenance increased, and MEG's overseas device load was at a high level. The polyester and terminal sectors are about to end the off - season, with downstream demand expected to gradually recover. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, while PTA is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage, and MEG's port inventory is expected to accumulate [11][12][13]. - In terms of valuation, PX's current valuation is at a neutral level, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil. PTA's low inventory level and the recovery of downstream prosperity are expected to result in less upward feedback pressure, and PXN has upward support. MEG's valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - Price Performance: The 09 contract dropped 250 yuan to 6812 yuan last week. The spot price of CFR China decreased by 28 dollars to 846 dollars. The spot - converted basis increased by 27 yuan to 160 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 90 yuan to 22 yuan [11]. - Supply: China's load was 81.1%, a 1.2% week - on - week increase; Asia's load was 73.4%, a 0.5% increase. Subsequent domestic maintenance is still low, and the load remains high [11]. - Demand: PTA load was 72.6%, a 7.1% week - on - week decrease. In the short term, PTA maintenance increased, and the overall load will decline [11]. - Inventory: Social inventory at the end of June was 413.8 tons, a 21 - ton decrease. According to the balance sheet, inventory will continue to decline from July to August [11]. - Valuation and Cost: As of July 31, PXN was 247 dollars, a 32 - dollar year - on - year decrease; the naphtha crack spread increased by 11 dollars to 85 dollars. The current valuation is at a neutral level [11]. - Summary: PXN declined last week. Although the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is small, the current valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. PTA - Price Performance: The 09 contract dropped 192 yuan to 4744 yuan last week. The spot price in East China decreased by 145 yuan to 4750 yuan. The spot basis decreased by 5 yuan to - 13 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 56 yuan to - 38 yuan [12]. - Supply: PTA load was 72.6%, a 7.1% week - on - week decrease. Although maintenance will increase in August, new device production will result in continuous inventory accumulation [12]. - Demand: Last week, polyester load was 88.1%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease. The terminal off - season is about to end, and the pressure to reduce production has decreased [12]. - Inventory: As of July 25, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 220.5 tons, a 1.6 - ton increase [12]. - Profit: The spot processing fee increased by 1 yuan to 176 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased by 28 yuan to 275 yuan/ton [12]. - Summary: PTA's absolute price followed PX down. The processing fee has limited room to operate, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [12]. MEG - Price Performance: The 09 contract dropped 140 yuan to 4405 yuan last week. The spot price in East China decreased by 102 yuan to 4480 yuan. The basis increased by 23 yuan to 73 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 36 yuan to - 34 yuan [13]. - Supply: Last week, EG load was 68.6%, a 0.7% week - on - week decrease. Subsequent maintenance devices will gradually decrease, and the load will gradually increase [13]. - Demand: Similar to PTA, polyester load decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the terminal off - season is about to end [13]. - Inventory: As of July 28, port inventory was 52.1 tons, a 1.2 - ton decrease; downstream factory inventory days were 13.5 days, a 0.5 - day increase. Short - term port inventory is expected to accumulate [13]. - Valuation and Cost: Last week, the naphtha - based profit decreased by 263 yuan to - 568 yuan/ton, and the overall valuation is moderately high [13]. - Summary: The fundamentals of the MEG industry are expected to weaken, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - PX: The basis rebounded, the spread was weak, the position increased, and the trading volume decreased [31][34]. - PTA: The basis continued to be weak, the spread fluctuated weakly, and the position and trading volume data are provided in the report [43]. - MEG: The position and trading volume were at a low level, and overseas commodity price data for PX, MEG, and PTA are provided [61][70]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - Supply: Device load rebounded, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in 2025 [77][75]. - Import: Imports remained stable in June [81]. - Inventory: Inventory continued to decline in June [90]. - Cost and Profit: PXN declined, the short - process spread was strong, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [94]. - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil: Gasoline performance was weak, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread, blending relative value, South Korea's aromatic hydrocarbon inventory, and South Korea - US aromatic hydrocarbon trade data are provided [101][111][113]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - Supply: New production capacity was put into operation, load decreased, and exports in June were continuously low [135][139][141]. - Inventory: Inventory rebounded from a low level [143]. - Profit and Valuation: The processing fee was weak [146]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - Supply: New production capacity was put into operation, the total load was at a five - year high, and import data are provided [150][154][156]. - Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly this week [158]. - Cost: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene prices remained stable [170]. - Profit: The profit of naphtha - based MEG weakened [173]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - Polyester: New long - filament devices were put into operation, the basis of staple fiber and bottle chips fluctuated, the start - up rate decreased, export data in June increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, long - filament inventory pressure was neutral, staple fiber inventory increased, bottle chip absolute inventory was high, and the profit of bottle chips and staple fiber was poor [188][191][194]. - Terminal: The start - up rate rebounded, textile enterprise orders increased and inventory decreased, raw material inventory preparation decreased, the growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand decreased, exports were weak, and US clothing inventory was below the pre - pandemic high with marginal increase [215][222][226].