镍周报：宏观情绪转冷，镍价震荡下跌-20250802

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of over - supply in the stainless steel and ferronickel markets is difficult to reverse. With weak demand, downstream smelters lack the motivation to expand production. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline gradually, driving the price center of the industrial chain to move down further. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term operating range of the main contract of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [12]. Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Nickel Ore: Although the impact of the rainy season persists, with the release of government nickel ore quotas and weak downstream demand, the price of nickel ore is weak. The procurement volume of smelters for pyrometallurgical ore has decreased significantly, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable but weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline due to demand drag [12]. - Ferronickel: On the demand side, the inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the futures and spot prices have shown signs of stabilization. Some traders are speculatively stocking up, providing some support for stainless steel demand. However, the current inventory is still high, and the production schedule in July only decreased slightly, so the short - term supply - demand contradiction is still large. On the supply side, some ferronickel production lines in Indonesia were converted to produce nickel matte in July, and it is expected that ferronickel production will decrease slightly. Overall, the oversupply pressure of ferronickel has slightly eased, but the situation is difficult to reverse significantly in the short term, and the profit of iron plants is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12]. - Intermediate Products: For high - grade nickel matte, the premium over ferronickel is at a high level recently, and the production drive is strong. Some ferronickel production lines have started to convert to produce high - grade nickel matte, and it is expected that the supply in July will increase significantly compared to the previous month. For MHP, the supply of hydrometallurgical ore is stable, and the production is normal, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. Overall, the supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [12]. - Refined Nickel: This week, the nickel price fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton on Friday, a 3.69% decrease from last week. At the macro level, the US reciprocal tariffs have basically been implemented, and Powell's hawkish statement during the week led to a strong rise in the US dollar index, suppressing the non - ferrous metals sector. In the spot market, as the futures price declined, the trading enthusiasm increased, and the spot premium slightly rebounded [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Refined Nickel Spot: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 125,710 yuan/ton, up 3,170 yuan/ton or 2.59% from last week; the price of Russian nickel was 123,960 yuan/ton, up 3,070 yuan/ton or 2.54% from last week. The LME closing price was 15,265 US dollars, up 0.13% from last week, and the SHFE closing price was 119,770 yuan, down 3.69% from last week [15]. - Futures: The LME nickel premium was (204.7) US dollars/ton, down 10.3 US dollars/ton from last week, and the SHFE nickel contract showed a decline [15]. - Nickel Premium: The Russian nickel premium was 350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The LME nickel Cash/3M discount was 192.79 US dollars/ton, slightly rebounding from last week [23]. - Secondary Nickel Price: The domestic high - grade ferronickel ex - factory price was 903 - 922 yuan/nickel point, with an average price increase of 3 yuan/nickel point from last week. The domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was 27,130 - 27,610 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 90 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3. Cost Side - Nickel Ore: The port inventory in China continued to increase. As of August 1, the nickel ore port inventory was 9.9436 million tons, a 0.7% increase from the same period last week. The price of nickel ore was under pressure. On August 1, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 52.1 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.1 US dollars/ton from last week; the price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 24.8 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.2 US dollars/ton from last week; the price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was flat from last week [33][36]. - Ferronickel: In June, the production of Indonesian MHP was 39,000 nickel tons, basically flat month - on - month; the production of high - grade nickel matte was 25,000 nickel tons, a significant month - on - month increase [43]. - Intermediate Products: As of August 1, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 12,496 US dollars/metal ton, and the MHP coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.845, unchanged from last week; the price of high - grade nickel matte was 13,053 US dollars/metal ton, and the high - grade nickel matte coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.88, unchanged from last week [48]. 4. Refined Nickel - Supply: In June 2025, the national refined nickel output reached 34,500 tons, remaining at a historically high level [53]. - Demand: The demand for refined nickel is related to the production and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand in the manufacturing and real estate industries [54]. - Import and Export: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. - Inventory: This week, the global refined nickel inventory decreased slightly. According to Mysteel data, the visible inventory in China and LME on August 1 was 242,000 tons, a decrease of 422 tons from the same period last month [62]. - Cost: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. 5. Nickel Sulfate - Supply: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. - Demand: The demand for nickel sulfate is related to the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [70]. - Cost and Price: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2023 to 2025, the total supply of nickel generally exceeded the total demand, and the supply - demand gap showed an increasing trend in 2025. In 2025, the total demand was 3.6024 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.7688 million nickel tons, with a gap of 166,400 nickel tons [78].