棉花周报：下游消费萎靡，郑棉减仓下跌-20250802

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US cotton futures continued to decline, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly. The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Market Review: As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 66.42 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.81 cents per pound from the previous week, with a decline rate of 2.65%. As of the week of July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, 2 percentage points lower than the previous week; the squaring rate was 80%, 9 percentage points higher than the previous week; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 11 percentage points higher than the previous week. As of the week of July 24, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2024/2025 market year was 39,100 bales, a sharp decrease from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/2026 market year was 71,700 bales [9]. - Domestic Market Review: As of Friday, the closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,585 yuan per ton, a decrease of 585 yuan per ton from the previous week, with a decline rate of 4.13%. As of the week of August 1, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from last week and an increase of 30,000 tons from the same period last year [9]. - Viewpoints and Strategies: The Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Sweden, but the specific agreement has not been finalized. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, with the continuous strengthening of the basis, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. - Fundamental Assessment: On August 1, 2025, the basis was 1,575 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread was - 200 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was - 887 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 180 yuan per ton, and the FC index M 1% was 13,551 yuan per ton. The short - term is still bearish [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: No trading strategy recommendations were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and various international spreads, to show the historical trends of different spreads [27][29][31]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation The report shows multiple charts related to the domestic cotton market, including domestic cotton production, import volume, US export contract volume to China, cotton yarn import volume, downstream operating rate, cotton sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the domestic cotton market [40][42][44]. 3.4 International Market Situation - CFTC Positions: The report shows the historical trends of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [58]. - US Situation: The report presents multiple charts related to the US cotton market, including planting situation, production situation, production and planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the US cotton market [60][62][64]. - Brazil Situation: The report shows multiple charts related to the Brazilian cotton market, including production and planting area, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Brazilian cotton market [73][76][78]. - India Situation: The report presents multiple charts related to the Indian cotton market, including production and planting area, consumption and import/export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Indian cotton market [81][84][86].