贵金属周报：美国非农数据弱势，降息驱动仍在-20250802

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak non - farm data in the US strengthens the drive for interest rate cuts. With Trump's pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and significantly lower - than - expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further accommodative monetary policies. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold being 773 - 801 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of SHFE silver being 8885 - 9287 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - Weekly Market Review: Affected by the hawkish stance of the Fed's July FOMC meeting, precious metal prices were weak this week. By the close of Friday's daytime session, SHFE gold fell 0.85% to 770.72 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver fell 5.05% to 8918.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 2.32% to 3416.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.18% to 37.11 US dollars/ounce [11][29]. - Fed's FOMC Meeting Impact: Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance on monetary policy at the FOMC meeting pressured gold and silver prices. However, Governors Bowman and Waller voted against and advocated for interest rate cuts. Their statements indicated a clear divergence within the Fed on monetary policy. Additionally, the potential resignation of Governor Kugler gives Trump the opportunity to appoint a Fed governor who aligns with his views, shaking the foundation of Powell's independent and hawkish monetary policy [11]. - Non - farm Data Impact: The ADP employment data and GDP data released on Wednesday showed resilience. But the non - farm payroll data released on Friday was significantly weaker than expected, reversing the market's previous view of the US economy's resilience. After the release of the non - farm data, the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent accommodative monetary policy rebounded sharply. The probability that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting rose to 80.3%, and it is also expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [11]. 3.2. Market Review - Price Performance: Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, precious metal prices were weak. SHFE gold fell 0.85% to 770.72 yuan/gram, SHFE silver fell 5.05% to 8918.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold rose 2.32% to 3416.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.18% to 37.11 US dollars/ounce [11][29]. - Position Performance: The domestic gold position was stronger than the overseas one. SHFE gold's position increased slightly by 2.93% to 431,600 lots, while COMEX gold's position as of the latest reporting period fell 9.02% to 445,300 lots. Both domestic and overseas silver positions were weak. SHFE silver's total position fell 8.57% to 786,000 lots this week, and COMEX silver's total position as of the latest reporting period fell 1.93% to 170,300 lots [31][34]. - Managed Fund Net Position: As of the latest reporting period on July 29, the net positions of COMEX gold and silver managed funds both declined. COMEX gold's managed fund net position decreased by 25,700 lots to 134,300 lots, and COMEX silver's managed fund net position decreased by 990 lots to 43,000 lots [36]. - ETF Position: As of August 1, the total position of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope was 2167.6 tons, and the total position of overseas silver ETFs was 27,381 tons [39]. 3.3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - US Treasury Yield Curve: The report presents the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries and the yields of short - term US Treasuries [50][51]. - Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations: The report shows the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal and real interest rates, and inflation expectations [53][54]. - Fed's Balance Sheet: This week, the balance of the Treasury General Account on the Fed's liability side replenished 8.59 billion US dollars, and the scale of deposit reserves decreased to 3.29 trillion US dollars [56][59]. 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - CPI & PCE: In June, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.4%. The month - on - month was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.1%. The core CPI year - on - year was 2.9%, lower than the expected 3%, and the month - on - month was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [64]. - Employment Situation: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 26 was 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000 [67]. - PMI & PPI: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, below the boom - bust line, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49 [70]. - New Home Data: In June, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the US was 1.321 million, higher than the expected 1.3 million and the previous value of 1.263 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.397 million, higher than the expected 1.39 million and the previous value of 1.394 million [73]. 3.5. Precious Metal Spreads - Gold Basis: The report shows the basis of gold TD - SHFE gold [76]. - Silver Basis: The report shows the basis of silver TD - SHFE silver [78]. - Domestic - Overseas Spreads of Gold and Silver: The report presents the domestic - overseas spreads of gold and silver [81]. 3.6. Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventory: The report shows the silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [88][91][92]. - Gold Inventory: The report shows the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [94].