铜周报：美国铜关税落地，价格回落-20250802

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 2025/08/02 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The internal and external basis fluctuates strongly, the refined scrap price difference narrows, and the global visible inventory increases, with the copper valuation being slightly on the long side. In terms of drivers, the increase in copper concentrate processing fees has a neutral impact on the copper price, the surge in the US dollar index is bearish, and the improvement in the global manufacturing PMI is bullish [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has increased slightly, and the processing fee of blister copper has risen month - on - month. The supply of cold materials has marginally eased. In June, Chile's copper production decreased significantly month - on - month and turned from an increase to a decrease year - on - year. The EI Teniente copper mine accident may exacerbate the tight supply situation [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 21,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1,000 tons to 73,000 tons, LME increased by 13,000 tons to 142,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 8,000 tons to 234,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 4,000 tons [11]. - Imports and Exports: The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper maintained a small loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,000 tons, and the net imports were 258,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and the spot supply was relatively tight. The refined scrap price difference in the domestic market narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The main contract of SHFE copper fell 1.07% week - on - week, and LME copper fell 0.66% to $9,633/ton [23]. - Spot Price: The spot price of copper showed a downward trend. The price difference between different regions and varieties also changed [25]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic copper price fluctuated weakly, and the basis quotation rebounded. The LME inventory continued to increase, and the Cash/3M maintained a discount [28]. - Structure: The near - month structure of SHFE copper futures flattened; the near - month Contango of LME copper shrank, and the far - month Contango structure expanded [31]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate increased slightly, and the sulfuric acid price in East China remained flat, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [36]. - Import and Export Ratio: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - Import and Export Profit and Loss: The spot import of copper had a small loss [41]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area also increased. The inventory reduction of SHFE came from Jiangsu and Shanghai, and the LME inventory increase came from Asian warehouses [44][47][50]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: In July 2025, China's refined copper output increased by nearly 40,000 tons month - on - month, reaching a new high, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [55]. - Import and Export Situation: In June 2025, China's copper ore imports decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of refined copper increased year - on - year, and the export increased month - on - month [58][61][64]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's manufacturing PMI declined in June, and the manufacturing prosperity of overseas major economies was divided [80]. - Downstream Industry Output Data: In June, the output of some downstream industries such as power generation equipment increased year - on - year, while the output of color TVs decreased [83]. - Real Estate Data: From January to June, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, and the national real estate prosperity index continued to decline in June [86]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate: The operating rates of most downstream copper enterprises showed a downward trend in June, and some are expected to continue to decline in July [89][92][95]. - Refined Scrap Price Difference: The domestic refined scrap price difference narrowed slightly [100]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Position: The total position of SHFE copper decreased by 55,866 to 965,272 lots (bilateral) [105]. - Foreign Fund Position: As of July 22, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds rebounded as of July 25 [108].