Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The visible inventory of lead ore continues to decline, and the raw materials at the primary end are relatively tight, leading to a marginal tightening of the supply of primary lead ingots. At the secondary end, the raw materials remain in short supply, but the smelting start - up rate of secondary lead has increased marginally. The downstream start - up rate remains relatively high, and the domestic inventory is rising slowly. Overall, the supply of lead ingots remains loose, and it is expected that lead prices will mainly fluctuate weakly [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.07% at 16,736 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 113,800 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 10.5 to 1,966.5 dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 146,300 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,550 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,600 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was - 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 69,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,900 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 276,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 72,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 40.86 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 63.5 dollars/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.181, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 528.2 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 404,000 tons, equivalent to 25.8 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 63.90%, and the factory inventory of primary ingots was 6,000 tons. At the secondary end, the inventory of lead waste was 84,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the factory inventory of secondary ingots was 13,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - Imports and Production: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of - 7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6%. In June 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 153,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 14.9% and a month - on - month change of 2.5%. From January to June, the total production of lead concentrate was 787,000 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.1%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [15][17]. - Total Supply: In June 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In May 2025, the global lead ore output was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 0.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.5%. From January to May, the total production of lead ore was 1,863,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.5% [19]. - Inventory and Processing Fees: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 404,000 tons, equivalent to 25.8 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - Smelting Start - up Rate and Output: The primary smelting start - up rate was 63.9%. The factory inventory of primary ingots was 6,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead output was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - Inventory and Production: At the secondary end, the inventory of lead waste was 84,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the factory inventory of secondary ingots was 13,000 tons. In July 2025, China's secondary lead output was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,251,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37% [31][33]. - Net Exports and Total Supply: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of - 22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86%. In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - Battery Exports: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,825,850 units, and the net export weight was 99,200 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 16.9% and a month - on - month change of - 5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.1% year - on - year [41]. - Downstream Inventory: In June 2025, the days of enterprise finished - product inventory slightly decreased to 26 days, and the days of dealer inventory slightly increased to 39.88 days [44]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starter batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Supply - Demand Difference: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was an excess of 0 tons [61]. - Overseas Supply - Demand Difference: In May 2025, the overseas supply - demand difference of refined lead was a shortage of - 21,400 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas supply - demand difference of refined lead was a shortage of - 35,700 tons [64]. 6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 69,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,900 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton [69]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 276,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 72,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 40.86 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 63.5 dollars/ton [72]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.181, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 528.2 yuan/ton [75]. - Position Analysis: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead turned to net short, the net long position of investment funds in London lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [78].
铅周报：炼厂原料紧缺，铅锭小幅累库-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-02 14:21