Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The fundamentals show that the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure. The number of maintenance projects is gradually decreasing, and the production volume is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices are being put into operation. On the downstream side, the domestic start - up level is at a five - year low. Regarding exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended, and there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, weakening cost support. In the medium term, the industry is continuously suppressed by the substantial increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real estate demand. The industry pattern has deteriorated and needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the domestic excess production capacity. Overall, under the reality of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, there has been a significant decline after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. If there is no policy to clear devices in the medium term, the supply - demand pattern will still be weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of reducing valuation to clear production capacity [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a new high this year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound. Currently, the valuation support is weak [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%; among them, the calcium carbide method is 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the ethylene method is 79%, a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The supply - side load increased slightly last week, mainly due to the resumption of maintenance at Qilu Petrochemical, Yidongdongxing, and Fujian Wanhua. It is expected that the load will further recover next week. The maintenance volume in August will decrease, and with the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure will increase [11]. - Demand: In terms of exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The start - up of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week. The load of pipes was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the load of films was 77%, unchanged from the previous week; the load of profiles was 37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream load was 42.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The overall downstream start - up has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 854,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,000 tons [11]. - Inventory: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 345,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons; the social inventory was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,000 tons; the overall inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons; the number of warehouse receipts increased. In the subsequent domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand, supply and demand will turn to inventory accumulation. It is necessary to observe whether there are any surprises in exports [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market No specific text - based summary content provided, only multiple charts about PVC term structure, prices, basis, spreads, positions, and trading volumes from 2021 to 2025 are presented [16][18][20]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure [40]. - Inventory: Multiple charts show the inventory data of PVC in - factory, ethylene - based in - factory, calcium carbide - based in - factory, social inventory, total inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [34][37][39]. 4. Cost Side - Calcium Carbide: The price of calcium carbide has decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The price and inventory trends of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the calcium carbide start - up rate [47][48]. - Other Raw Materials: The price of semi - coke has rebounded, while the prices of ethylene and caustic soda have remained stable. The price trends of semi - coke, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [50][52][55]. 5. Supply Side - Capacity Expansion: The capacity expansion of PVC in 2025 is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 2.5 million tons/year of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, including projects such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II). The raw material consumption for the new capacity is also presented [58][63]. - Production: The PVC start - up rate has remained stable, and the overall production volume is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the weekly production volume [66][69][72]. 6. Demand Side - Downstream Start - up: The start - up of the three major downstream industries of PVC has rebounded. The start - up rates of PVC pipes, films, and profiles from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [75]. - Exports: The anti - dumping policy of India has been extended, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the pre - sales volume [11][83][86]. - Real Estate Impact: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area, reflecting the impact of the real estate market on PVC demand [90].
PVC周报：反内卷情绪退潮，回归基本面交易-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-02 14:23