Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The risk level of the previous continuous rally in the commodity market has increased, and fear of high prices has spread. This week, varieties such as coking coal, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, glass, and soda ash have all significantly corrected. The improvement of the lithium carbonate fundamentals depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. Australian mines have successively announced quarterly reports, and Greenbush and Pilbara will increase production in the new fiscal year. The subsequent market attention will still focus on the reduction and suspension of production of domestic resources in Jiangxi and Qinghai. This week, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake lithium carbonate have dropped rapidly. There is an expectation of repair in the supply - demand relationship before the peak season, which is expected to support the bottom of lithium prices, but the sustainability of supply reduction remains to be observed. Recently, the uncertainty brought by capital games is high, and there is a certain linkage effect among active varieties. Pay attention to the overall atmosphere change in the commodity market in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously, and lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry point in a timely manner according to their own operations [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - On August 1st, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 68,832 yuan, a weekly decline of 10.41%. Among them, the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 68,920 yuan, a decline of 14.4% within the week [12] - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output by SMM was 17,268 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to last week. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase compared to the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 40.6% increase in the first seven months year - on - year. In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease compared to the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In the first half of the year, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the exports of lithium sulfate increased by 172%. The export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate in the first half of the year was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [12] - The Passenger Car Association expects that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July can reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles globally increased by 26.2% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of cathode materials will increase slightly in July compared to the previous month, and according to Xinluo Consulting's research, the output of cathode materials in August will increase by 2.6% month - on - month [12] - On July 31st, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was reported at 141,726 tons, a decrease of 1,444 tons (-1.0%) compared to last week. The downward supply has reversed the inventory growth trend. On August 1st, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 6,605 tons [12] - The ore price has adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 1st, the quoted price of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 720 - 770 US dollars per ton, a 13.4% decrease compared to the previous week. In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative 0.2% decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. With the rebound of lithium prices, the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased in July [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - On August 1st, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 68,832 yuan, a weekly decline of 10.41%. Among them, the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 68,920 yuan, a decline of 14.4% within the week [20] - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 100 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract positions has declined [23] - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 5,680 yuan [26] 3. Supply Side - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output by SMM was 17,268 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to last week. Some manufacturers have carried out maintenance or production cuts, and the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake lithium carbonate have dropped rapidly, resulting in a decline in domestic lithium carbonate output. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase compared to the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 40.6% increase in the first seven months year - on - year [31] - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first seven months increased by 73.8% year - on - year. In July, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease compared to the previous month, and the cumulative output in the first seven months increased by 21.0% year - on - year [34] - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July increased by 15.6% year - on - year. Some salt lakes have reduced or suspended production, and the output of salt lake lithium carbonate has declined during the peak season. In July, the output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end increased by 9.8% month - on - month to 6,380 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July increased by 17.4% year - on - year [37] - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease compared to the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In the first half of the year, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the exports of lithium sulfate increased by 172%. The export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate in the first half of the year was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [40] 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. Future growth in lithium salt consumption will rely on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited growth [44] - The Passenger Car Association expects that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July can reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles globally increased by 26.2% year - on - year [47] - From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase compared to last year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 761,000, a 6.4% increase compared to last year [50] - In June, the combined output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase compared to the previous month and a 51.4% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 697.3 GWh, a cumulative 60.4% increase year - on - year. In June, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% increase compared to the previous month and a 35.9% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China was 299.6 GWh, a cumulative 47.3% increase year - on - year [53] - In June, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly by 0.2% month - on - month, and the output in the first half of the year increased by 47.8% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of cathode materials will increase slightly in July compared to the previous month, and according to Xinluo Consulting's research, the output of cathode materials in August will increase by 2.6% month - on - month [56] 5. Inventory - On July 31st, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was reported at 141,726 tons, a decrease of 1,444 tons (-1.0%) compared to last week. The downward supply has reversed the inventory growth trend. On August 1st, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 6,605 tons [63] - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a low level in recent years due to the rush for exports [66] 6. Cost Side - The ore price has adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 1st, the quoted price of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 720 - 770 US dollars per ton, a 13.4% decrease compared to the previous week [74] - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative 0.2% decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. With the rebound of lithium prices, the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased in July [77]
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Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-02 14:29