生猪周报：关注月差波动-20250802

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market is trading the policy intervention in capacity reduction, and the original oversupply logic has been restructured. The valuations of futures contracts have increased significantly, especially for the far - end contracts. For near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter will increase, the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter has decreased, and the month - spread may move towards a positive spread structure. For far - month contracts, the long - term policy regulation of sow capacity cannot be falsified for the time being, and the month - spread tends to be in a reverse spread. Due to the ongoing industrial restructuring, the uncertainty of single - side trading has increased, and more attention should be paid to month - spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, pig prices rebounded after a decline. With continuous weight reduction by enterprises and limited demand highlights, pig prices initially fell. However, towards the end of the month, the slowdown in the slaughter rhythm and increased downstream procurement difficulty led to a price rebound. The weekly average price in Henan increased by 0.1 yuan to 14.3 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.06 yuan to 13.66 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 0.18 yuan to 15.76 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the month, limited supply and upstream reluctance to sell may support prices, but as the supply recovers and market stocking weakens, pig prices may remain weak in the first half of the month [11]. - Supply Side: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million, slightly up month - on - month and 3.7% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the strong expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction may improve the supply situation next year. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure. Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased [11]. - Demand Side: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable to pork consumption. Although pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted on a month - on - month basis [11]. - Trading Strategy: There is no recommendation for single - side trading currently; instead, focus on the support level of the November contract. For arbitrage, consider a 3 - 5 reverse spread or an 11 - 01 positive spread in August, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 2 months, and a core driving logic related to policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Movement: Pig prices rebounded after a decline last week. With continuous weight reduction by enterprises and limited demand, prices initially fell but rebounded towards the end of the month. The slaughter volume remained high, the average trading weight continued to decline, and the weight of individual farmers increased. The fat - standard price difference remained high. Although the spot price is weak, there is an expectation of a price increase in August [22][25]. - Basis and Spread Movement: The spot price is weak, but there is an expectation of a price increase in August [25]. - Prices of Piglets and Sows: Relevant price charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [27][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million, slightly up month - on - month and 3.7% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the strong expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction may improve the supply situation next year [33]. - Inventory and Slaughter: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure. Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased [42][49]. - Theoretical Slaughter Volume: The theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure [42]. - Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is low, indicating low epidemic pressure; the proportion of large pigs has slightly increased, indicating that the proportion of large pigs is gradually increasing as the weight increases [45]. - Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter: Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased, indicating that the market is actively increasing supply [49]. - Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [51]. - Secondary Fattening and Barn Utilization: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [53]. 3.4. Demand Side The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable to pork consumption. Although pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted on a month - on - month basis [58]. 3.5. Cost and Profit Costs have slightly rebounded after reaching the bottom and are generally lower year - on - year. Due to the lagged effect of low costs, although pig prices are weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [69]. 3.6. Inventory Side Frozen pork inventory is moderately low but is slowly increasing [74].