Minsheng Securities·2025-08-03 02:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with demand entering a seasonal lull. The political bureau meeting emphasized "anti-involution" and the need for orderly competition in key industries, shifting focus from price increases to rational competition and profit improvement [3][4]. - Short-term steel demand is expected to decline seasonally, leading to potential price corrections. However, long-term capacity governance remains a key theme, with expectations for improved profitability in steel companies as supply dynamics optimize [3][4]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in steel production and inventory levels, with total steel production rising to 8.67 million tons, while social inventory increased by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 1, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3,350 CNY/ton (down 100 CNY), hot-rolled steel at 3,430 CNY/ton (down 120 CNY), and cold-rolled steel at 3,860 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY) [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products reached 8.67 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 9,000 tons to 2.11 million tons. Social inventory rose by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons, indicating a mixed inventory situation [2][3]. Profitability - Steel profitability showed fluctuations, with long-process rebar and hot-rolled steel margins changing by +20 CNY/ton and -14 CNY/ton respectively. Short-process electric arc furnace steel margins increased by +38 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector, among others [3][4].