固定收益点评：恢复部分债券增值税，影响几何？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The restoration of VAT on some bonds is a one - time policy that does not affect the bond market trend. The new bond interest rate may increase by 2.8 - 5.4bps, and the new - old bond spread may be around 5.6 - 10.8bp [1][3] - The VAT restoration may increase total tax revenue by about 31.55 billion yuan. Banks' tax burden increase is the most obvious, and the tax scale increase of treasury bonds and local bonds is the most significant [2][16] - It is negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, and positive for general credit bonds. It is beneficial for old bonds and negative for new bonds. Currently, the tax advantage of public funds in interest - rate bonds is strengthened, but there is a possibility of adjustment [3][18] - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized in the future. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled is a matter of future concern [4][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Tax Policy Adjustment - Since August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date. The interest income of bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [1][7] Bond Investment Tax Calculation - For general taxpayers, the VAT rate for bond investment is 6%, and the VAT and surcharges combined rate is 6.34%. The enterprise income tax rate is 25%, and assuming a 6% VAT rate, the enterprise income tax is 23.42% of the taxable interest or transfer spread [8] Previous Tax Preferences - Specific tax types: Interest income from treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from VAT and income tax; the income tax rate of railway bonds is halved; policy - financial bonds are exempt from individual income tax [9] - Specific institutions: Interest income from financial inter - bank transactions is exempt from VAT; public funds' interest income is exempt from income tax, and transfer income is exempt from VAT and income tax; asset management product managers use a simplified VAT calculation method [9] Post - adjustment Tax Rates - Public funds and other asset management products' VAT rate on interest income from newly - issued bonds after August 8, 2025 is 3.26%, while banks' self - operated investment in such bonds has a VAT rate of 6.34% [9][10] Impact on Different Institutions - It is generally negative for all types of institutions, with banks' self - operated tax cost increasing the most. The estimated VAT scale for banks' self - operated investment in newly - issued bonds is 232.73 billion yuan [14][15] Impact on Different Bond Types - Negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, positive for general credit bonds. Negative for new bonds and positive for old bonds [3][18] Future Outlook - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled needs to be continuously observed [4][19]