周观：如何评估国债等品种征收增值税对债市影响

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased from 1.7325% last Friday to 1.695%, with a weekly change of -3.75bp. The bond yield showed a pattern of "first rising then falling," corresponding to the "first rising then falling" of the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating an obvious stock-bond seesaw effect [1][11] - Starting from August 8, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax again. This policy change has short-term and long-term impacts on the bond market. In the short term, it is beneficial for old bonds, while in the long term, it is bearish for the bond market [14][15] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is as high as 89.8%, mainly due to the weakening of the US labor market, with the number of newly added non-farm payrolls reaching the lowest point in 2025 and the unemployment rate rising [21][22] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One-week Viewpoints - Yield Changes of 10-year Treasury Bonds: The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 3.75bp this week. The yield showed different trends on each trading day due to various factors such as commodity futures, stock markets, policy announcements, and economic data [1][11] - Impact of Bond VAT Policy: Starting from August 8, newly issued bonds will be subject to VAT, while old bonds and their subsequent issuances will continue to be exempt. In the short term, it is beneficial for old bonds, and in the long term, it is bearish for the bond market [14][15] - Possibility of Fed Interest Rate Cut: Considering the US economic data and labor market conditions, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is as high as 89.8% [21][22] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summary - Liquidity Tracking: The total net injection of the open market operation from July 28 to August 1 was -6433 billion yuan. The money market interest rates showed different degrees of decline [33][35] - Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking: The total commercial housing transaction area showed signs of recovery. Steel prices and LME non-ferrous metal futures official prices declined. Overseas, US bond yields generally increased, and the US dollar index, commodities, and stock markets showed different trends [50][57][71] 3. One-week Review of Local Bonds - Primary Market Issuance Overview: A total of 70 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 337.175 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 94.638 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 242.536 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of issuance amount were Sichuan, Anhui, and Yunnan [82][83] - Secondary Market Overview: The stock of local bonds this week was 52.53 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 36.6108 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.69%. The top three provinces with active trading were Sichuan, Shandong, and Anhui [95] - Local Bond Issuance Plan for this Month: The local bond issuance plan shows the planned issuance amount of each province on different dates [102][103] 4. One-week Review of the Credit Bond Market - Primary Market Issuance Overview: A total of 215 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 179.211 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 165.838 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 13.372 billion yuan. The net financing amount decreased by 41.542 billion yuan compared with last week [104] - Issuance Interest Rates: The issuance interest rates of different types of bonds showed different degrees of changes, with the issuance interest rate of short-term financing increasing by 20.50bp, and the issuance interest rates of medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds showing varying degrees of decline [120] - Secondary Market Transaction Overview: The total turnover of credit bonds this week was 558.558 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [120] - Yield to Maturity: The yields to maturity of different types of bonds showed different trends, with the yields of short-term financing and medium-term notes showing mixed trends, and the yields of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally rising [121][124][125] - Credit Spreads: The credit spreads of short-term financing and medium-term notes generally narrowed, while the credit spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds showed different trends [126][129][135] - Grade Spreads: The grade spreads of short-term financing and medium-term notes generally narrowed, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds generally widened, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [139][143][147]