重拾出海链中的出口机会，中国制造的地位将继续攀升

Group 1: Trade Environment and Risks - The current international trade demand is under significant downward pressure, with the U.S. imposing higher tariffs on various countries, limiting trade agreements' effectiveness[7] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies remains high, with potential impacts on global economic growth difficult to estimate[44] - The risk of indirect economic ties breaking due to U.S. pressure on countries to limit supply chain connections with China is present[44] Group 2: Capital Goods and Investment - A decrease in uncertainty can significantly boost investment willingness in the real economy, with historical data showing that fixed asset formation growth often outpaces overall GDP growth during such periods[28] - The "Tariff 2.0" policy is expected to catalyze a new wave of industrial migration, with China positioned favorably in this transition[33] - U.S. manufacturers and service providers have borne 80% and 88.2% of tariff costs, respectively, which will gradually impact U.S. economic growth and public sentiment[19] Group 3: China's Manufacturing Position - China is likely to play a more critical role in the global manufacturing landscape as the industrial chain is reshaped, gaining export share and improving national confidence[4] - The new industrial migration wave will not only involve China but also other countries, driven by varying tariff rates and the creation of new "cost basins"[33] - The number of countries with greater bilateral trade volumes with China than with the U.S. has significantly increased, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics[43]