工业硅：建议关注上游工厂的复产进度，多晶硅：短期或有回调，建议谨慎持仓

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon sectors, with a potential for price corrections. It recommends short - selling industrial silicon on rallies, and a short - term short or intraday short strategy for polysilicon [1][7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are affected by upstream factory复产 rhythms. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. Polysilicon is policy - driven, but there is a short - term correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth [6][7] Summary by Related Content Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures showed a weak oscillation this week, with the Friday closing price at 8,500 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon at 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week). Polysilicon futures rose and then fell, closing at 49,200 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot market had weak transactions [1] Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply: Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. Overall weekly production increased marginally. Yunnan's复产 was slow. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 million tons this week, social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, resulting in overall inventory reduction [2] - Demand: Downstream short - term demand was stable. Polysilicon's weekly production increased, boosting the purchase of industrial silicon. Organic silicon's weekly production also increased, but its terminal consumption had limited improvement. The aluminum alloy and export markets had no significant increase in demand [3] Polysilicon - Supply: Short - term weekly production continued to increase, with an estimated production of 120,000 - 130,000 tons in August. Factory inventory decreased due to speculative restocking by downstream buyers [3] - Demand: After the profit of silicon wafers was restored, production increased slightly in August compared to July. However, the price increase transmission from upstream to downstream was not smooth, and the acceptance of component price increases by end - users was yet to be observed [5] Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the upstream factory复产 rhythm. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect market sentiment. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, with an expected price range of 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton next week [6][7] Polysilicon - The short - term market sentiment has cooled down, and there is a correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth. It is a policy - driven market, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips, while short - term shorting or intraday shorting may be more appropriate. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell industrial silicon on rallies; for polysilicon, short - term shorting or intraday shorting [7] - Inter - period: Consider entering a reverse spread position for PS2509/PS2511 based on futures warehouse receipt registration [8] - Hedging: Recommend upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories to sell for hedging [8]