铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fluctuated downward this week, reaching a low of 19,800 yuan/ton. The traditional off - season characteristics of the market are becoming more obvious, with downstream enterprises on high - temperature holidays, which drags down the orders of recycled aluminum. Although some small and medium - sized enterprises have reduced or stopped production, large factories maintain stable production. The cost support logic still exists, and it is expected that the price of cast aluminum alloy will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [6]. - As of August 1st, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots (factory + social) increased by 0.32 million tons to 11 million tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a high level. The upstream waste aluminum supply is tight, and the downstream automotive sales in July, as a traditional off - season, face growth pressure [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - end: Waste Aluminum - Waste aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a historically medium - high level. The import of waste aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.556 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% [9][14]. - The refined - scrap price difference shows an oscillatory trend [18]. Supply - end: Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 converged. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy weakened and showed certain seasonal patterns [26][31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, while the monthly operating rate increased. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in an average loss state [36][37]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy decreased rapidly, while social inventory continued to accumulate. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [42][44]. - For recycled aluminum rods, information on production and inventory is provided. For example, in terms of production, data from different periods are presented, and the inventory situation in factories is also shown with relevant proportion information [47][49]. Demand - end: Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel vehicles has recovered, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption. In July 2024 (July 21 - July 27), the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars reached 467,000, a year - on - year increase of 4.71% and a month - on - month increase of 14.74%. However, in July, as a traditional automotive consumption off - season, there is pressure on automotive sales growth [6][55].