国债期货周报-20250803

Report Summary 1. Core View - The market is in a new stage of anti - involution, with commodities falling and Treasury bond futures recovering, and the curve flattening periodically. The report maintains the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is oscillating with a bearish bias. However, in the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of the tax on Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds on new and old bonds, inter - period spreads, and market risk appetite [2]. 2. Content Summary by Section 2.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts recovered weekly, and the curve flattened periodically. The market shows a differentiated pattern where long - end trading intensifies while short - end resilience continues. The 30 - year main contract (TL) fluctuated significantly during the week due to weak PMI data and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, indicating high sensitivity of long - end interest rates to policies. The yield curve shows alternating "steepening - flattening" characteristics, and attention should be paid to the verification of the curve structure by subsequent policy implementation and key data disclosure [3][5]. 2.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - The report provides a liquidity monitoring and curve tracking chart, but specific text content is not provided [7]. 2.3. Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 2.39%, foreign capital increased by 1.76%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.41%. Weekly changes: private funds increased by 1.65%, foreign capital increased by 6.69%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 7.26% [8].