棉花：注意外部市场情绪影响

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the cotton industry. 2. Core View ICE cotton declined due to a lack of fundamental support and a strengthening US dollar. Chinese cotton futures fell by over 4% due to concerns about "low - value" warehouse receipts and a cooling financial market sentiment. Although the adjustment of Zhengzhou cotton futures is considered to be phased in place from a fundamental perspective, it is expected to oscillate around 13,600 as the financial market adjustment risk persists, and attention should be paid to policy trends and downstream demand [1][17]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Volume (lots) | Volume Change (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Open Interest Change (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Continuous | 68.38 | 68.77 | 66.34 | 66.42 | -1.81 | -2.65 | 113,716 | 39,003 | 157,336 | 2,339 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Continuous | 14,175 | 14,375 | 13,535 | 13,585 | -585 | -4.13 | 1,550,030 | 324,029 | 325,813 | -178,992 | | Cotton Yarn Continuous | 20,375 | 20,540 | 19,680 | 19,740 | -630 | -3.09 | 56,601 | 7,949 | 4,310 | -6,492 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: Declined this week due to good growth of new US cotton crops, average export sales data, lack of positive news from trade negotiations, and a strengthening US dollar [5]. - US Cotton Export Sales Data: As of the week ending July 24, 2024/25 US upland cotton net sign - on was 0.89 million tons; 2025/26 US upland cotton sign - on was 1.63 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 5.24 million tons, up 25% week - on - week and 10% from the four - week average. The total sign - on volume of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton was 2.7835 billion tons, accounting for 108% of the annual forecast export volume; the cumulative export shipments were 2.5934 billion tons, accounting for 93% of the annual total sign - on volume [5]. - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries - India: Sowing progress was slightly slower than last year. As of July 25, the cotton planting area was 10.3 million hectares. The total sales volume this year reached 7.3 million bales. In June, the textile production index rose 3.7 to 107.5, and the clothing manufacturing index rose 1.2 to 127.7 [6]. - Australia: The area of new crops was uncertain. The expected output was 5.4 - 5.5 million bales (about 1.25 million tons), up over 10% from the previous season. A large part was low - grade cotton. As of July 30, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 62% of the total capacity [7]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand was weak, and cotton yarn export might improve. The new - season cotton output was expected to be between 6.5 - 7.5 million bales. The import tax policy change was expected to slow down transactions. Cotton yarn export inquiries increased [8]. - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operating Rates: As of the week ending August 1, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 73%, Vietnam's was 63.5%, and Pakistan's was 64% [9]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Spot Price: Fell this week, and trading improved. The basis of spot cotton increased overall after the decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures [10]. - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 8,807, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 348, totaling 9,155, equivalent to 384,510 tons [11]. - Downstream Market: The downstream trading of pure - cotton yarn became worse. The transaction volume decreased, the price center shifted down, and the inventory of spinning enterprises accumulated. The all - cotton grey fabric market remained dull, with prices falling and trading not improving [12]. 3.3 Operational Suggestions - ICE Cotton: Pay attention to the technical support at the June low and the tariff negotiations between the US and countries such as China and India [17]. - Domestic Cotton Futures: It is expected to oscillate around 13,600. Wait for the financial market sentiment to stabilize, and pay attention to policy trends and downstream actual demand [17].