周观点：“反内卷”投流税、育儿补贴政策相关投资机会-20250803

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The introduction of the "flow tax" is expected to improve the competitive landscape and profitability of sectors such as clean appliances, pet food, and kitchen small appliances [12][14] - The newly announced childcare subsidy policy will provide 3,600 yuan per year for each newborn until the age of three, which is anticipated to lower family birth costs and stimulate demand in the maternal and infant sectors [15][18] - The report highlights that the domestic demand is expected to recover due to policy support, with specific recommendations for major appliance companies benefiting from trade-in programs [19] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The "flow tax" regulation limits tax deductions for advertising expenses to 15% of annual revenue, which may lead to a more sustainable competitive environment in e-commerce [12][14] - The childcare subsidy program is projected to create a market of approximately 100 billion yuan annually, benefiting maternal and infant products [15][18] Weekly Market Insights - The home appliance sector experienced a decline of 2.3% this week, with specific segments like white goods and kitchen appliances seeing drops of 2.6% and 3.2% respectively [24] - The textile and apparel sector also faced a decline of 2.14%, with cotton prices showing a decrease of 1.86% [26] Investment Recommendations - Major appliance companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric are recommended due to expected benefits from trade-in policies [19] - The pet industry is highlighted as a resilient sector, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. suggested for investment [19] - Small appliances and branded apparel are expected to see a recovery in demand, with recommendations for leading brands like Supor and Anta Sports [19] Global Expansion Themes - The report emphasizes the long-term theme of overseas expansion, recommending leading clean appliance brands like Roborock and Ecovacs for their global market potential [20] - The report also notes that Chinese manufacturers maintain a competitive edge in global markets, particularly in major appliances and tools [20]