盘面高位回落，下游买盘涌出

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Volatile" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term speculative sentiment has cooled down, causing the market to decline significantly. Future price trends may gradually return to fundamental logic. The demand side shows positive growth in production schedules in August, and the supply side still has uncertainties due to the unresolved Jiangxi mining license issue. The market has support from both fundamentals and downstream buying. It is not recommended to enter short positions too early. Instead, it is advisable to try long positions at low prices with a light position and use spot market transactions to determine the entry timing. Also, it is suggested to take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2][12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面高位回落，下游买盘涌出 - Last week (07/28 - 08/01), lithium salt prices dropped from high levels. LC2508 and LC2509 closing prices decreased by 13.7% and 14.4% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices fell by 2.1%. Battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise, with the average prices of coarse - grained and micronized types increasing by 4.0% and 3.7% respectively. The price difference between electric and industrial lithium carbonate narrowed slightly, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate also narrowed. Due to the previous influx of long - position funds and slow warehouse receipt generation, the delivery risk of LC2509 increased. After the Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued two position - limit announcements, LC2509 significantly reduced its positions by 270,000 lots to 210,000 lots, and the delivery risk is expected to decline [1][10][11] 3.2.周内行业要闻回顾 - Jiangte Motor's actual controller changed to Wang Xin and Zhu Jun after a series of equity transfers and agreements, and the company's stock resumed trading on July 29, 2025 [14] - Liontown's Kathleen Valley lithium project had strong second - quarter operating results, with a net operating cash flow of 23 million Australian dollars, revenue of 96 million Australian dollars, and sales of 97,330 metric tons of concentrate at an average grade of 5.2%. The underground production is increasing as planned [14] - De'a Lithium Industry's 30,000 - ton lithium salt project was successfully put into production on July 31, laying a foundation for full - scale production [15] - IGO's Greenbushes project has a 2026 guidance target of 1.5 - 1.65 million tons of spodumene with a cash cost of 310 - 360 US dollars per ton. The Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery's annual output did not meet the target, and it is expected to be further impaired by 70 - 90 million Australian dollars [15] - PLS's 2025 fiscal - year lithium spodumene concentrate production reached 754,600 tons, a 4% year - on - year increase, exceeding the guidance target. However, due to falling lithium prices, the annual revenue decreased by 39% to 769 million Australian dollars. The company plans to increase production to 820,000 - 870,000 tons in 2026 [15][16] 3.3.产业链重点高频数据监测 3.3.1.资源端：锂精矿现货报价回落 - Lithium concentrate spot quotes declined, with the lithium spodumene concentrate spot average price (6%, CIF China) dropping from 810 US dollars per ton to 755 US dollars per ton, a 6.8% decrease [11] 3.3.2.锂盐：盘面高位回落 - Lithium salt prices dropped from high levels. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 2.1%, and LC2508 and LC2509 closing prices decreased by 13.7% and 14.4% respectively. Battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise [1][10][11] 3.3.3.下游中间品：报价略回升 - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as some lithium - related materials showed a slight increase. For example, the prices of some ternary materials increased slightly, with the 523, 622, and 811 types rising by 0.6%, 1.1%, and 0.6% respectively [11] 3.3.4.终端：6月中国新能源车延续去库 - In June, China's new - energy vehicle market continued the inventory reduction trend, with relevant data on production, sales, and penetration rate showing certain trends [36]