铜产业链周度报告-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global copper inventories are increasing, but downstream buyers are taking advantage of low prices, which supports copper prices. The price range is expected to be between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3]. - Trump's tariff policies continue to disrupt the market, increasing uncertainty. The weak US non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp rise in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [7]. - The copper price driving logic is shifting from inventory - structural logic to fundamental logic. LME copper inventories are expected to continue to increase marginally, putting pressure on LME copper prices [7]. - For trading strategies, due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies, unilateral trading should be cautious. The obvious increase in LME inventories makes LME copper prices likely to be weak, which is favorable for reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: COMEX copper volatility has recovered, reaching around 65%, while the volatility of copper in other markets has declined [11]. - Term Spread: The C - structure of SHFE copper has strengthened, with the 08 - 09 spread improving from a discount of 80 yuan/ton on July 25th to a discount of 10 yuan/ton on August 1st. LME copper has a weak spot discount, with the 0 - 3 spread around a discount of 50 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper has expanded [14][16]. - Position: SHFE copper positions have decreased by 27,900 lots to 482,600 lots, while LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper positions have increased [17]. - Fund and Industry Positions: LME commercial short net positions have increased from 64,900 lots to 62,300 lots, and CFTC non - commercial long net positions have decreased from 39,800 lots on July 22nd to 37,300 lots on July 29th [23]. - Spot Premium: Domestic copper spot premiums have strengthened, rising from a premium of 125 yuan/ton on July 25th to a premium of 175 yuan/ton on August 1st. Yangshan Port copper premiums have recovered, and Rotterdam copper premiums have remained stable at 167.5 US dollars/ton [27][29]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventories have increased from 537,800 tons on July 24th to 562,500 tons on July 31st. Domestic social inventories have increased to 119,300 tons but are at a low level. Bonded area inventories have decreased, while COMEX and LME copper inventories have increased [30][32]. - Position - Inventory Ratio: The position - inventory ratio of LME copper has declined, weakening the logic of overseas spot tightness. The position - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 08 contract is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history [33]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Copper concentrate imports have increased year - on - year. In June 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates were 2.3497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%. Port inventories have increased, and processing fees have marginally recovered but are still at a low level [36][38]. - Recycled Copper: Recycled copper imports have increased year - on - year, with 183,200 tons imported in June, a year - on - year increase of 8.06%. Domestic production has decreased significantly. The scrap - refined copper price spread has weakened and is below the break - even point, and import losses have narrowed [39][44]. - Blister Copper: Blister copper imports have increased, with 68,500 tons imported in June, a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. Processing fees in July were at a low level [48]. - Refined Copper: Domestic refined copper production has continued to increase. In June, the output was 1.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. Imports have also increased, and the current import loss has narrowed [50][51]. 3.3 Demand End - Operating Rate: In June, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a low level compared to the same period in history, and the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable decreased in the week of July 31st [54]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees have recovered but are at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. Copper tube processing fees have weakened but are at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. Processing fees for copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened [57][59]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In June, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, while that of copper tubes was at a low level [60]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has recovered, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In June, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a slightly higher - than - neutral level compared to the same period in history, while that of copper tubes was at a slightly lower - than - neutral level [62]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Domestic copper actual consumption has performed well, with cumulative consumption from January to June being 7.8135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69%. Apparent consumption from January to June was 7.822 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.46%. Grid investment, home appliances, and the new energy industry are important supports for copper consumption, and grid investment has accelerated [67]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In June, domestic air - conditioner production was 18.782 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.16%. Domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.268 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.42% [69].