硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告：硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20250803

Report Overview - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and alloy trading has returned to fundamentals. The "anti - involution" theme has lost steam. With potential weakening alloy demand due to factors like reduced iron - water production and expected impacts on steel production rhythm, alloy prices may face pressure if supply continues to expand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Situation - Price Movement: This week, alloy prices showed a volatile and weak trend. On Wednesday, the futures market was affected by meeting content, and the cooling of the anti - involution theme reversed the alloy price trend. Macro factors included the cooling of the "anti - involution" theme, emphasis on policy implementation in the Politburo meeting, and the Fed maintaining interest rates. Microscopically, iron - water production decreased, which may lead to weaker alloy demand [5]. - Futures Contracts: The silicon ferrosilicon 2509 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,682 yuan/ton, down 484 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 3,455,999 contracts traded and 155,097 contracts held (a decrease of 57,709 contracts). The manganese silicon 2509 contract was relatively strong, closing at 5,962 yuan/ton, down 452 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 3,879,980 contracts traded and 271,263 contracts held (a decrease of 115,769 contracts) [8]. - Spot Prices: National silicon ferrosilicon spot prices fluctuated, with 75B silicon ferrosilicon in major production areas quoted at 5450 - 5700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 50 - 50 yuan/ton. National silicon manganese spot prices were in the range of 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of - 110 - 100 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Silicon Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - Supply: This week's silicon ferrosilicon production was 10.45 tons, a 2.0% week - on - week increase. The weekly operating rate was 33.76%, up 0.43 percentage points from last week. Ningxia contributed 83.9% to the production increase [19][20]. - Demand: - Steel Procurement: Steel procurement continued to enter the market, but the price increase space was limited. For example, Yunnan Qujing Chenggang and Shandong Iron and Steel Rizhao Company increased their procurement prices [27]. - Downstream Demand: Iron - water production decreased. Non - steel demand also weakened, with stainless - steel production, metal magnesium production, and silicon ferrosilicon exports all showing declines [33][39]. - Inventory: - Sample enterprise inventory reached 65,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,460 tons. - Silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts numbered 22,042, a decrease of 82, with a corresponding inventory reduction of 410 tons. - In July, the average available days of steel mill silicon ferrosilicon inventory decreased [43]. - Profit: Due to rising raw material costs, silicon ferrosilicon profits shrank along with the futures price. The weekly futures profit was 375 yuan/ton, a 60.02% week - on - week decrease, and the spot profit was 243 yuan/ton, a 10.66% week - on - week decrease [4][53]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - Supply: This week's manganese silicon production was 19.08 tons, a 2.3% week - on - week increase. The weekly operating rate was 42.18%, up 0.6 percentage points from last week. Ningxia contributed 80.6% to the production increase [57][58]. - Raw Materials: Overseas manganese ore suppliers raised their quotes, and Tianjin Port's manganese ore prices showed a slight increase. The global manganese ore shipment volume increased, and recent arrivals at ports also increased, but the demand release rate at Tianjin Port slowed down [63][67]. - Demand: - Steel Procurement: Steel procurement was concentrated, and the procurement price was around 6000 yuan/ton [72]. - Downstream Demand: Iron - water production decreased, and the overall demand support for manganese silicon may weaken marginally [78]. - Inventory: - Sample enterprise inventory was 164,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,000 tons. - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts numbered 77,854, an increase of 198, with a corresponding inventory increase of 990 tons. - In July, the average available days of steel mill manganese silicon inventory decreased [83][87]. - Profit: With relatively stable cost support, manganese silicon profits shrank along with price declines [91].