镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡，不锈钢：宏观淡化回归基本面，钢价低位震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine its elasticity. Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The contradiction at the mine end has faded, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range fluctuation judgment. Stainless steel is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern, with macro hype sentiment fading and the influence of actual verification increasing [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Fundamentals: After the contradiction at the nickel mine end fades, the smelting end logic suggests a narrow - range fluctuation. The premium of Indonesian nickel mines has回调, and the cash cost of pyrometallurgy has decreased by 1.4%. The global visible inventory of refined nickel shows a mild increasing trend, and the expected increase in low - cost supply in the long - term still drags down the market. However, the de - stocking of nickel - iron inventory at a high level slightly boosts the nickel price valuation [1]. - Macro Factors: Domestically, the Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing previous supportive measures, and the market valuation may回调 marginally. Overseas, the weakening US dollar supports non - ferrous metals but suppresses industrial external demand expectations [1]. - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. Stainless Steel Market - Production Arrangement: In August, the stainless - steel production arrangement is 3.23 million tons, with a marginal increase of 0% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year increase has slightly declined to 2.1%. In Indonesia, the August production arrangement is 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth is 1.2% [2]. - Cost and Profit: The nickel - iron price has been revised up to 920 yuan/line, and the cash cost of stainless - steel billets is about 12,584 yuan/ton. The warehousing profit has回调 from a high of 3.0% to 1.4% [2]. - Inventory: After the production cut in June - July, the stainless - steel inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of about 5%, but it is still 5% higher than last year. The nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 10% month - on - month but is 56% higher year - on - year, which may drag down the steel price [2][5]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per single line [6]. - Environmental violations have been found in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park, and possible fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6][7]. - The production of some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia has been suspended due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. Futures Data - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,840 [8]. - Volumes: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 106,856, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 124,683 [8].