生猪：弱现实强预期，反套确认

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week (7.28 - 8.03), the spot market for live pigs showed weak performance. Piglet, live pig, and sow prices had different trends, with supply - side issues like group's ineffective end - month price increase and panicked retail farmers, and demand being suppressed by summer and high temperatures. The average slaughter weight decreased by 0.32% week - on - week. In the futures market, prices were weakly volatile. The LH2509 contract had a certain price range, and the basis changed from negative to positive [2]. - Next week (8.04 - 8.10), the spot price of live pigs will be weakly volatile. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large due to factors such as the release of social inventory and the planned increase in enterprise slaughter. Demand will be limited in July - August due to high temperatures. The futures LH2509 contract may gradually return to the industrial logic, with the basis potentially turning to a contango structure. The support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (7.28 - 8.03) - Spot Market: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 36.05 yuan/kg (last week: 37.5 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 14.43 yuan/kg (last week: 14.18 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1628 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.28KG, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease [2]. - Futures Market: The highest price of the LH2509 contract was 14410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14055 yuan/ton (last week: 14385 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 375 yuan/ton (last week: - 205 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (8.04 - 8.10) - Spot Market: The spot price of live pigs will be weakly volatile. In August, the supply pressure is large, and demand is limited. The price may reach a new low this year [3]. - Futures Market: The LH2509 contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, with the basis potentially turning to a contango structure. The support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the stop - profit and stop - loss [4]. 3.3 Other Data - Basis and Spread: This week, the basis was 375 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 375 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: In June, the pork output was 529.5 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase; the pork import was 8.84 million tons, a 5.6% month - on - month decrease. The average weight this week was 124.28KG (last week: 124.68KG) [12].