能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pulp market is expected to be weakly stable with oscillations in the short - term. The high inventory on the supply side and the weak demand during the traditional off - season are putting pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of policy implementation and the arrival of goods at major ports [77][78]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Industry News - As of July 31, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 514,000 tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons (10.8% MoM); at Qingdao Port, it was 1,405,000 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons (3.2% MoM); at Gaolan Port, it was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (13.6% MoM). The total inventory of major ports was 2,105,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons (1.8% MoM) [6]. - Shandong Yinhe Ruixue Paper plans to build a 300,000 - ton pulping project, with a total investment of 2,207.94 million yuan, scheduled to start in January 2026 and be put into production in December 2027 [6]. Market Data - On August 1, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 664 yuan/ton (66% MoM, 82.42% YoY), the basis of Russian Needle was 114 yuan/ton (670% MoM, 416.67% YoY), and the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 550 yuan/ton (30.95% MoM, 37.5% YoY) [15]. - On August 1, 2025, the 09 - 11 month - spread was - 6 yuan/ton (- 106.38% MoM), and the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 224 yuan/ton (- 53.42% MoM) [20]. Fundamental Data - Price: Softwood - Hardwood Price Difference and Import Profit - On August 1, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,730 yuan/ton (- 2.26% MoM, 73% YoY), and the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,180 yuan/ton (- 12.59% MoM, 96.67% YoY) [29]. - On August 1, 2025, the import profit of Silver Star was - 46.91 yuan/ton (- 259.84% MoM, 67.76% YoY), and the import profit of Star was 0.48 yuan/ton (- 98.63% MoM, 100.18% YoY) [35]. - Price: Softwood Pulp - On August 1, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Pine, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,150 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, and 5,300 yuan/ton respectively, with varying MoM and YoY changes [36]. - Price: Hardwood Pulp - On August 1, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4,120 yuan/ton, 4,120 yuan/ton, 4,100 yuan/ton, and 4,100 yuan/ton respectively, with varying MoM and YoY changes [43]. - Price: Natural Color Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp - On August 1, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 5,000 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no MoM change and different YoY changes [47]. - Supply - In June 2025, the European port inventory was 1.56 million tons (1.89% MoM, 34.72% YoY), and the global pulp shipment volume in May was 4.155 million tons (1.91% MoM, - 9.18% YoY) [49]. - In June 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.031 million tons (4.2% YoY), including 1.435 million tons of hardwood pulp (11% MoM) [77]. - Demand - On August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.68%, 63.2%, 55.44%, and 57.88% respectively, with varying MoM and YoY changes [56]. - The prices of major finished papers were at a low level this year, and the terminal consumption had no new incremental demand [78]. - The profits of white cardboard, offset paper, and coated paper decreased, while the profit of tissue paper increased [65]. - Inventory - On August 1, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 235,400 tons (- 0.45% MoM, - 49.14% YoY), and in factories was 19,200 tons (0% MoM, - 42.05% YoY) [66]. - On August 1, 2025, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,405,000 tons (3.16% MoM, 29.49% YoY), at Changshu Port was 514,000 tons (- 10.76% MoM, 5.54% YoY), and the total inventory of five ports was 2,105,000 tons (- 1.77% MoM, 18.06% YoY) [74]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The inventory of major ports decreased in July, and the import volume remained high. China plans to add 3.206 million tons of pulp production capacity in the second half of 2025 [77]. - Demand: The traditional off - season effect is prominent, with a decrease in monthly pulp consumption and low prices of base paper [78]. - View: The market is expected to be weakly stable with oscillations in the short - term. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and the arrival of goods at major ports [78]. - Valuation: The basis of Silver Star in Shandong increased by 46 yuan/ton. - Strategy: Short - term near - month contracts are weak, far - month contracts may be stable; consider reverse arbitrage [79].