国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250803

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week's view on crude oil: Hold long positions and consider adding more on dips. Brent and WTI may challenge $80/barrel in Q3, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. In the medium to long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50/barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan/barrel [6]. - The logic behind the view: Excluding geopolitical and trade - war uncertainties, the market is bullish in Q3, with the rhythm possibly adjusted to the second half of the quarter. This is mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production less than expected, a decline in US shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center, making de - stocking difficult to disprove. Overseas macro - market risk appetite has deteriorated, and short - term market pricing of "recession" may provide good buying opportunities. There is also a risk of a decline in Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions. In the medium to long term, the market is bearish due to the long - term oversupply pressure from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., making inventory accumulation difficult to disprove [6]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is at a medium level, and there is still a chance of a rally in the second half of Q3 [6]. - Strategies: For the short - term, hold long positions and add more if the price continues to correct. For the long - term, short at high prices and trend - short. Pay attention to long 09 and short 10, long 09 and short 11 in the inter - period strategy. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the inter - variety strategy [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - Global stock markets have declined, market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the gold - oil ratio has rebounded [11]. - Overseas inflation has risen, and the service PMI has rebounded [12]. - The RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has recovered [13]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ may continue to increase production. Attention should be paid to the decline in non - OPEC+ production. For example, Iraq's Kurdish region has a 200,000 - barrel - per - day production halt due to a drone attack, while the UAE's production has exceeded 3 million barrels per day, and its July exports reached 3.31 million barrels per day (close to a record high). The US Gulf of Mexico has added 150,000 barrels per day of new capacity, but the closure of California refineries has offset some of the supply increase [6][7][8]. - Presented the monthly and weekly export volume data of OPEC+ core member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, etc., as well as the weekly export volume data of non - OPEC+ countries such as the US, Canada, and Mexico [15][24][42]. - The number of US shale oil drilling rigs and production have rebounded [50]. 3. Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe are at seasonal highs. The operating rate of China's major refineries has stabilized, and the operating rate of independent refineries has rebounded [52]. - Asian demand is differentiated. China's refinery processing volume in June reached 15.2 million barrels per day (a month - on - month increase of 1.2 million barrels per day), but high refined oil inventories have curbed subsequent purchases. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil due to US tariff threats and shifted to Angolan crude oil. In Europe, there is a shortage of distillates in north - western Europe, while there is an oversupply of fuel oil in southern Europe [6][9]. 4. Inventory - US commercial inventories have rebounded, and Cushing region inventories have stabilized but are significantly lower than historical averages [55]. - European crude oil inventories have rebounded, while diesel and gasoline inventories have decreased [60]. - Domestic refined oil profit margins have recovered [62]. 5. Price and Spread - The North American basis has rebounded slightly [65]. - The monthly spread has declined [66]. - SC is stronger than the external market, and the monthly spread has weakened [69]. - Net long positions have rebounded [70].