国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250803

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 745 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week, while the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week, with a regional price difference of -20 yuan. The 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 850 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week; the 5.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 765 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volumes and were still in short supply [4]. Supply - As of July 27, there were a total of 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. Among the ships departing in July, about 16 were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August. The expected arrival volume in July was 1.63 million cubic meters [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 1.78 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 1.18 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2558 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.024 million cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 0.4363 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0785 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 0.4211 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0257 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 0.2068 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.016 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.32 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0962 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. Market Trend - As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. Other - As of the week ending August 1, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2018 points, down 239 points (-10.6%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 678 points, down 0.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.74 points, down 2.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index was oscillating at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.200, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 2.0% to 1.69 [58][59].