铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to have a certain premium squeezed out in August and September, but the depth of the correction is not significant. The key lies in the limited height of the current inventory accumulation. The possibility of a lackluster peak season in late August and September depends on whether the pre - placement of previous export demand has led to a lack of quality in traditional second - half export orders [3]. - Alumina prices continue to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although there are uncertainties on the supply side, the supply - side relaxation in the spot market may put pressure on the price [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - Price Trend: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract has shown a mild downward trend after failing to break through near the 21,000 mark. The premium of traditional non - ferrous metals has been squeezed out, but the decline is relatively mild [3]. - Micro - fundamentals: As of July 31, the SMM East China spot has turned to a discount, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton on Friday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has rebounded, but the cumulative output since the beginning of the year has still decreased by 0.73%. The output and sample production schedule of aluminum profiles have continued to weaken. The processing fee of aluminum rods has increased by 110 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [3]. 3.2 Alumina - Price Trend: The price center has continued to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although the spot price showed a turning point this week, considering the possible further relaxation of spot supply in mid - August, the futures price may still face pressure [6]. - Inventory Situation: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week. The in - plant inventory decreased by 2.3 tons, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 4.6 tons, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increased by 1.3 tons [51]. 3.3 Transaction - related - Term Spread: This week, the A00 spot premium has weakened, while the alumina spot premium has strengthened. The Shanghai Aluminum near - month spread has widened [11][12]. - Position and Trading Volume: The positions and trading volumes of both the Shanghai Aluminum and alumina main contracts have declined [14]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.4 Inventory - related - Bauxite: As of August 1, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 1.44 million tons week - on - week. As of June, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has continued to decline. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia has decreased, while the floating inventory has increased. The outbound volume of Guinea has increased, and the inbound volume has slightly decreased [24][29][30]. - Alumina: The total national inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. As of July 31, the inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week [51]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of July 31, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons [52]. - Aluminum Rod: The spot and in - plant inventories have slightly decreased, and the outbound volume has increased [58]. - Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foil: As of June, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has slightly decreased, while the raw - material inventory ratio has slightly increased. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil has significantly increased, and the raw - material inventory has greatly increased [60]. 3.5 Production - related - Bauxite: As of July, the domestic bauxite production under the SMM caliber has slightly increased. The production in Shanxi has remained stable under the Steel Union caliber in June and slightly decreased under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Henan has increased slightly under the Steel Union caliber in June and decreased by 3.2 tons under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Guangxi has decreased significantly under the Steel Union caliber in June and increased by 8.94 tons under the SMM caliber in July [65][69]. - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate has remained stable. As of August 1, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 94.6 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.847 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level in recent years [73]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of June, the operating capacity has remained at a high level. As of July 31, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum under the Steel Union caliber was 845,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week. The aluminum - water ratio has decreased seasonally [78]. - Downstream Processing: The production of recycled aluminum rods has decreased by 1,290 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum rods has increased by 3,400 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has increased by 4,950 tons week - on - week [81]. 3.6 Profit - related - Alumina: The smelting profit has continued to recover, with a slight decline this week. The profit in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan has remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi is better than that in other regions [89]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit remains at a high level, but global macroeconomic complexity, geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [98]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [99]. 3.7 Consumption - related - Import and Export Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum have widened. In June 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly decreased by 57,000 tons month - on - month [107][109]. - Absolute Consumption Volume: The transaction area of commercial housing has declined, while the automobile production has increased month - on - month [116].