国泰君安期货能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term with narrowing downside space. The butadiene market is likely to experience a short - term callback and then enter a weak pattern in the medium - term [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - Supply: High - cis butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization continued to increase this week. Next week, production is expected to decline slightly due to planned shutdowns and potential restarts [4]. - Demand: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to be slightly adjusted. Substitute demand remains high, and overall demand maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - Inventory: As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. Sample production enterprise inventory decreased while sample trading enterprise inventory increased slightly [4]. - View: In the short - term, butadiene rubber futures prices are expected to correct from high levels and enter an oscillatory pattern in the medium - term. The theoretical valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, it is bearish. For cross - period trading, there is no recommendation. For cross - variety trading, the NR - BR spread is expected to shrink in the short - term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - Supply: Domestic butadiene supply remained stable this week, with production at 103,400 tons and capacity utilization at 69.97% [5]. - Demand: The demand from synthetic rubber for butadiene remains high, while the demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and the demand from SBS maintains rigid procurement [5]. - Inventory: The total domestic butadiene sample inventory dropped to a low for the year, with port inventory significantly reduced due to weather - related factors [5]. - View: In the short - term, butadiene spot prices are expected to correct, but the decline is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is in the stage of supply - demand pricing and has a low correlation with the raw material end. Its capacity is in a state of continuous expansion, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries [8][10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Supply of Butadiene Rubber: Production and capacity utilization have shown changes. Costs, profits, and import - export volumes also have their own trends. Inventory levels have decreased [37][40][47]. - Demand of Butadiene Rubber: The demand from the tire industry is related to factors such as inventory and capacity utilization [51].