国泰君安期货能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250803

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for short - fiber (PF) is "oscillating weakly" [8] - The investment rating for bottle chips (PR) is "oscillating weakly" [5] Report's Core View - For short - fiber, market sentiment premium is released, and it shows a unilateral oscillating weak trend. Although downstream demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August, and the factory profit is near the cash - flow cost with neutral inventory, the tariff will still have an impact on exports in the medium - to long - term. In the future, there is limited room for further increasing production, and the processing fee is expected to expand as the peak demand season approaches [9] - For bottle chips, market sentiment premium is released, and it also shows a unilateral oscillating weak trend. After the production cut, the spot processing fee is still below the factory target. The demand support is strong, and the export disturbance is alleviated. However, there are pressure factors in the future, such as the increase in production after the end of the production cut and the demand situation in September - October [13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short - fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot processing fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract processing fee on the futures market is 850 - 900 yuan/ton. The processing fee below 900 yuan/ton is undervalued, and there is an upward momentum when the demand is expected to improve [10] Fundamental Operating Conditions - Supply: Based on low processing fees and inventory pressure, factories maintain high - level production. The average factory operating rate this week is 90.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber for spinning is 94.7%. It is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the future [9] - Demand: The operating rate of terminal weaving has bottomed out and is rising, but the short - term demand is still weak, and the short - fiber inventory has slightly accumulated. The 1.4D equity inventory is 10.4 days, and the physical inventory is 22.4 days. The demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August [9] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: Go long on PF and short on PTA, and go long on PF and short on PR when the price is low [11] Bottle Chips (PR) Upstream View Summary - The "anti - involution" policy may lead to cost increases, but has little impact on the supply of bottle chips due to the relatively small number of old - generation devices [12][17] Valuation and Profit - The current processing fee is 350 - 400 yuan/ton, which is moderately low and below the break - even line of most factories. It is expected to rise slowly as the spot supply tightens [13] Fundamental Operating Conditions - Supply: After the production cut, the processing fee has not risen above the factory cost. Factories are expected to maintain the current production - cut level until late August or the end of August. The total production capacity involved in the production cut by leading factories is about 2.4 million tons, and it has been fully implemented. The current operating rate is 79% [12] - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream industries remains high, and downstream enterprises replenish inventory at low prices. After the full implementation of the production cut, the bottle - chip inventory is expected to decline slightly from July to August. The factory inventory this week is about 18 days, remaining unchanged from the previous week [12] Strategy - Unilateral: There is pressure in the trend - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: Go long on PF and short on PR when the price is low [14] Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost has decreased, and this week it is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee of bottle chips has remained stable this week, at around 380 - 400 yuan/ton. The export profit is oscillating weakly, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed [54] Inventory - The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is 17.6 days (CCF data). The estimated social inventory at the end of June, July, and August is 3.07 million tons, 3 million tons, and 2.83 million tons respectively [59] Device Changes - The production cut is expected to last until late August or the end of August. For example, Chongqing Wankai plans to shut down 600,000 - ton production capacity for maintenance from July 5th for about one and a half months, and Yisheng Hainan has gradually shut down 1.25 - million - ton production capacity for maintenance since July 1st [65] Demand - Downstream industries: This week, the overall downstream operating rate has changed little. The operating rate of beverage enterprises has increased to 95 - 100%, the average operating rate of edible - oil enterprises is around 70 - 80%, and the operating rate of sheet - material industries in East China is around 60 - 80% and 40 - 60% in South China [69] - Consumption situation: From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 3.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of beverage - category commodity retail sales is 0.6%. The consumption of beverages and edible oils is generally weak, which is related to the high base last year and the crowding - out effect of optional consumption on essential consumption [75] Export Situation - In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices is 657,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to June 2025, the total export volume is 3.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. Short - term disturbances include the impact of the US tariff renegotiation on re - exports from South Korea and Vietnam and the impact of the Turkish SASA's production on local exports [88] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From July to August, the supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and inventory will start to accumulate again after September. Supply - side assumptions include that the production cut may last until the end of August, and new capacity will be put into operation in September. Demand assumptions include that downstream demand is estimated to increase by 5% year - on - year during the peak season, and export demand is expected to recover in August [100][102]