纯苯、苯乙烯周报：短期逢高空，压缩利润-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should focus on compressing the profit position of styrene. Pure benzene supply and demand are both increasing, while styrene supply is increasing and demand is decreasing. Currently, styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and it is mainly considered for short - selling. The port inventory of styrene is in an accelerated accumulation stage. The downstream operating rate of pure benzene is gradually recovering, and the industry is gradually entering the inventory replenishment stage. The short - term market still has support at 5600 - 5700. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and Styrene Market Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The planned maintenance loss in July was about 90,000 tons, which decreased to 40,000 tons in August, and the planned maintenance in September was 70,000 tons. New pure benzene plants will be put into operation intensively from July to September. [3] - Imported pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in the US has stabilized and rebounded. The profit of STDP plants is negative, and the output rate is still decreasing. The profit of US styrene has been squeezed from a high level, but the operating rate has recovered from 50% in June to nearly 65% - 70% in July. The arbitrage window for styrene from the US to Europe has closed, and the incremental demand in August is expected to come from South America. [3] Demand - Styrene: There has been a large increase in supply recently. New plants such as Jingbo Petrochemical (680,000 tons, put into operation in early August) and Jilin Petrochemical (600,000 tons, put into operation on September 20) are about to be launched. [3] - Caprolactam: It was in a state of increasing load in July, and some plants plan to reduce the load after August. A new 300,000 - ton plant of Hengyi in Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into operation in October. [3] - Phenol: Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 400,000 - ton plant was put into operation in July, Jilin Petrochemical's plant will be put into operation in late August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to put it into operation in October. [3] - Aniline: Some plants such as Jinmao Aluminum and Chemical, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted, and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s new plant has been put into operation and is currently operating at a low load. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. [3] - 3S hard plastics downstream of styrene: EPS and PS have clearly entered the summer off - season, with continuous inventory accumulation and reduced operating rates. The overall demand for ABS remains medium - high and shows resilience. [3] Valuation - The reasonable valuation of pure benzene 2603 is 6000 yuan/ton. The current styrene futures price structure has turned to contango, and the largest structural opportunity this year is approaching the end. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies. - Inter - period: Temporarily take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage and reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage in the futures market. - Inter - commodity: Buy BZ03 and sell EB09, and take profit on the position of compressing profit temporarily. [3] 3.2 Pure Benzene Delivery Standards - The overall delivery settings are uniform. The benchmark delivery areas are Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. Different regions have different premium and discount settings. [5] Production Capacity - The production capacity of pure benzene before 2005 was 3.26 million tons, accounting for 12%. [20] Market Situation in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the price continued to decline, mainly due to pre - Spring Festival market over - speculation and the non - implementation of downstream production capacity expansion expectations. In the second half of the year, domestic supply continued to increase, but it gradually entered the de - stocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. It is expected that the apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 will be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. [30] 3.3 Styrene Production Capacity - The production capacity of styrene before 2005 was 1.12 million tons, accounting for 5%. [21] Market Situation in 2025 - The global styrene output contracted in the first half of 2025. Currently, styrene is in a pattern of high inventory, medium - level profit (recently compressed). [70][76] Future Outlook - Pay attention to the issue of the price ratio between aromatics and olefins. Styrene in the far - month should not have profit. [69][81] 3.4 Downstream Products of Pure Benzene Phenol - It is expected that the apparent demand for phenol in 2025 will be 6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. [52] Caprolactam - It is expected that the apparent demand for caprolactam in 2025 will be about 7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. [55] Adipic Acid - The annual apparent demand for adipic acid is about 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. [57] Aniline - It is expected that the apparent demand for aniline in 2025 will remain at 3.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. [61]