国泰君安期货能源化工石油沥青周度报告-20250803

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Considering the current mediocre fundamental performance, the short - term valuation of asphalt is expected to have no outstanding performance and may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market caused by tariff policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 581,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (2.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 146,000 tons (33.6%). The cumulative output from January to July was 18.704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.508 million tons (8.8%) [4]. - Demand: Downstream buyers purchase low - priced asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north - south market has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure to decline. In Shandong, rainy weather affected terminal demand, and in East China, the actual trading volume was light due to rain. However, with the resumption of normal shipping of cargo, the factory inventory pressure in the region is not large, while the social inventory is expected to increase [4]. - Viewpoint: The short - term asphalt valuation is expected to remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [4]. - Valuation: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil, and the month - on - month fluctuation intensified slightly. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,761 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The spot price of the asphalt market declined, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. The low - price of asphalt spot was under pressure, with 4 regions seeing price drops, 1 region an increase, and 2 regions remaining stable [4]. - Strategy: For the unilateral strategy, no specific suggestion is given; for the inter - period strategy, partially take profit on the reverse spread; for the inter - variety strategy, partially take profit on the short crack spread [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is related to factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also substitutes like Oman crude oil and Basra heavy oil. Different crude oils have different asphalt yields, for example, the yield of Ma Rui crude oil is 55% - 60% [7]. - Futures - Disk Price and Trading Volume and Open Interest: There are data on the price trends of Brent, WTI, and SC, as well as the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures [11]. - Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil: There are data on the prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread: There are data on the basis in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta, as well as the calendar spread of different contract months [18][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Demand: The demand for asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. The demand for modified asphalt in some northern provinces decreased due to precipitation, but the demand in Shandong's highway projects increased, and the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt enterprises increased [24][28]. - Supply: - Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 581,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (2.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 146,000 tons (33.6%). As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 725,000 tons, a 1.5% decrease from July 28. The inventory in the northwestern region decreased significantly [32]. - Start - up: There are data on the weekly start - up rates of asphalt refineries in different regions [36][38][40]. - Inventory: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions, including the total inventory rate, and the inventory rates in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, North China, Shandong, Northeast, and South China [46][47][48].