8月港口库存预计小幅回升

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - In July, the ethylene glycol (EG) price rose and then slightly declined, with the spot basis oscillating downward. The price was influenced by factors such as anti - involution policy expectations, coal price fluctuations, port inventory, and typhoon - affected shipping schedules [2][10]. - Domestic supply of EG is expected to increase. In 2025, 160 million tons of new MEG devices are expected to be put into production, and the EG load steadily recovered in July, with the syngas - based load likely to further increase in August [3][13]. - Overseas supply shows different trends in various regions. The total EG imports from July to September are estimated to be 67, 60, and 65 million tons respectively, mainly due to the growth of supplies from Saudi Arabia and Malaysia [4][37][38]. - In July, the weaving and texturing load first dropped rapidly and then rebounded slightly. The polyester load decreased slightly at the beginning of the month but remained relatively stable. The demand side is expected to improve with the arrival of the seasonal peak season in late August [5][69]. - In July, the EG balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory build - up of about 4 million tons, and in August, it is expected to have a slight build - up of about 8 million tons, with the East China port inventory expected to remain low and slightly increase [6][55]. - The trading strategy suggests a cautious and bearish stance on the unilateral position due to weakening market sentiment and coal price decline. There are no suggestions for cross - variety and cross - period strategies [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EG Price and Basis Structure Review - In July, the EG price rose and then slightly declined, and the spot basis oscillated downward. The price was affected by macro - sentiment improvement, coal price rebound, and later by factors such as coal position limits, port low inventory, and oil price rebound [2][10]. EG Domestic Fundamental - EG Subsequent Domestic New - added Capacity: In 2025, 160 million tons of new MEG devices are expected to be put into production. The 60 - million - ton Sichuan Zhengdakai device was put into production in May, and the remaining two sets are expected to be put into production in Q4 [3][13]. - EG Operating Rate and Monthly Maintenance Forecast: The EG load steadily recovered in July at a rate lower than expected. The syngas - based load has returned to a relatively high level, and it is expected to further increase in August under high - profit conditions, leading to an increase in domestic EG supply [3][15]. - China EG Weekly Maintenance Forecast: No specific content in the provided text, only the title is given. EG Outer - Market Situation - Overseas EG Monthly Maintenance Forecast: In North America, most devices restarted in July, but US imports decreased due to tariffs. Canadian devices operate normally, and the Shell 50 - million - ton/year device plans a 45 - day maintenance in September. In the Middle East, Saudi devices restarted in June but had power - related shutdowns in July. Iranian imports are expected to be 9 million tons in July, 6 million tons in August, and rebound in September. In Asia, Malaysian devices restarted, and Taiwan devices operate at full - load. South Korean imports are relatively low [37][38]. - Overseas EG Weekly Maintenance Forecast: No specific content in the provided text, only the title is given. - EG International Price Difference: No specific analysis content in the provided text, only the title and some related chart information are given. EG Inventory Trend - In July, the EG balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory build - up of about 4 million tons, with a slight decrease in port visible inventory and an increase in invisible inventory. In August, with increased domestic supply and decreased imports, a slight build - up of about 8 million tons is expected, and the East China port inventory is expected to remain low and slightly increase [6][55]. Downstream Weaving and Polyester Situation - In July, the weaving and texturing load first dropped rapidly and then rebounded slightly. The polyester load decreased slightly at the beginning of the month but remained relatively stable. Currently, orders have not improved significantly, and the reduction in filament inventory is mainly due to downstream transfer. However, the short - term reduction pressure on polyester load has decreased, and the demand side is expected to improve with the arrival of the seasonal peak season in late August [5][69].