宏观与出口影响后尿素重回基本面

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3][4] 2. Core Views Market Analysis - Cost and profit: Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, profits are narrowing [2]. - Supply: The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply. The output and operating rate of urea plants are expected to remain high in August [2][15]. - Imports and exports: After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. Urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [2][30]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.7%, and that of melamine is 63.5%. Urea enterprises' order days are 6.1 days. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of urea enterprises is 917,000 tons. As demand weakens in the second half of the month, upstream inventory begins to accumulate. The port inventory is 493,000 tons. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - In July, affected by the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", coking coal and coke futures led the rise, and urea futures were driven by sentiment, with the futures price rising significantly. However, after the macro - favorable factors dissipated at the end of the month, the futures price quickly declined, and the market returned to fundamental trading. Meanwhile, it was continuously disturbed by export - related policies. As the peak season for summer agricultural demand ends, downstream demand gradually weakens, upstream inventory accumulates, and urea prices mainly fluctuate weakly [9]. Urea Output - The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The domestic monthly urea output in August is expected to reach 6.1 million tons, a slight increase from July. There are few planned urea plant overhauls, and the daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply [15]. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Currently, coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, production profits are narrowing. In July, the overall operating rate of urea was 84.3%, a 2.4% decrease from the previous month. The coal - based operating rate was 84.4%, a 3.6% decrease from the previous month, and the gas - based operating rate was 81%, a 2.4% increase from the previous month. With few planned urea plant overhauls in the future, the operating rate of urea plants is expected to remain high in August [20]. Urea Import and Export Volume and Export Profit - In June 2025, urea imports were 27.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 87%. In June 2025, urea exports were 66,200 tons. After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. With the relaxation of domestic export policies, urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen significantly, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [30]. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - At the end of July, the operating rate of compound fertilizers was 38.7%, an 8.6% increase from the previous month. The operating rate of melamine was 63.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. Urea enterprises' order days were 6.1 days, roughly the same as the previous month. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [40]. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - At the end of July, the inventory of urea enterprises was 917,000 tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous month. In the first half of July, it was still the peak season for downstream demand, and urea inventory decreased. However, as demand weakened in the second half of the month, inventory began to accumulate. The port inventory was 493,000 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from the previous month. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [44].