国泰君安期货金银周报-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold rebounded by 0.1%, while London silver declined by 5.8%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 86.3 to 92.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.9%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23% [3]. - Gold prices initially faced downward pressure due to factors like tariff decisions and strong economic data but were supported by returning long - term funds. After the disappointing US non - farm payrolls data on Friday, gold prices rebounded significantly [3]. - In the short term, the gold - silver ratio may be in a rebound channel, but it's hard to predict a clear trend for gold and silver. Technical signals may be more effective than fundamental factors, and the prices generally remain in the previously predicted range - bound pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - Price and Price Changes: Most gold and silver futures and spot prices showed fluctuations. For example, Comex gold 2510 rose 2.32%, while Comex silver 2510 fell 3.18% [4]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: Trading volumes and open interests of different gold and silver contracts changed. For instance, the trading volume of沪银2510 decreased by 100,557 hands, and its open interest decreased by 85,634 hands [4]. - Inventory Changes: COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95 million ounces, and its registered warrant ratio fell to 54.7%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 6.34 million ounces to 506.66 million ounces, and its registered warrant ratio rose to 37.8% [37][39]. - Spread Changes: Various spreads, including overseas and domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - market spreads, changed. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold主力spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Transaction - related Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Open Interest) - Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads: This week, the London spot - COMEX gold主力spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力spread was - 55.9 dollars per ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力spread converged to - 0.088 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力spread was - 0.345 dollars per ounce [8][9][12]. - Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.54 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 30 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [16][19]. - Monthly Spreads: The gold monthly spread was 6.9 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly spread was 72 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [23][28]. - Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs: The report calculated the cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for gold and silver, including costs such as delivery fees, storage fees, and capital costs [31][32][33][34]. - Deferred Fee Payment Directions: This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold and silver was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power [35]. - Inventory and Open Interest - Inventory Ratios: COMEX gold and silver inventories changed, and their registered warrant ratios also changed [37][39]. - CFTC Non - commercial Positions: This week, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold and silver both declined slightly [44]. - ETF Holdings: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 4.01 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 145.51 tons [50][52]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: This week, the gold - silver ratio rose from 86 to 92.5 [55]. - COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was - 0.23%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 1.77% [57]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rates: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - Inflation and Retail Sales Performance: Data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales were presented [67][68]. - Non - farm Employment Performance: Data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, unemployment claims, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate, were provided [70][71][72]. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions: Not detailed in the content - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index: Not detailed in the content - Fed Rate - cut Probability: The report showed the Fed rate - cut probabilities in different regions and at different times [80].