2025年8月大类资产配置展望：穿越震荡，韧性上行

Group 1 - The report anticipates a strong rebound in the A-share market in August 2025, with potential volatility due to alternating negative scores in the internal model [2][6][30] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to follow a similar trend as the A-share market, with recent easing of pressure on the Hong Kong dollar from the US dollar index [2][6] - Growth style is likely to outperform in relative returns, while dividend sectors may perform moderately [2][6][30] Group 2 - The US stock market is projected to experience wide fluctuations in August, with high risk levels indicated by the risk trend model [2][6] - The gold market is assessed to have a medium risk level, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation expected [2][6] - The report suggests a continued inverse fluctuation pattern between US stocks and gold, with attention needed on events driven by the "Trump 2.0" tariff framework [2][6] Group 3 - The domestic bond market is expected to show limited fundamental recovery, with a prevailing loose policy tone and overall interest rates likely to remain strong [2][6] - The US bond market is supported by fundamental pressures, easing supply, and rising risk aversion, contributing to a downward trend in interest rates [2][6] Group 4 - The report recommends a relatively balanced asset allocation strategy, anticipating a wide fluctuation market with ongoing structural opportunities [2][6]